Having reviewed 2013 with me, Robert Scoble now turns his Google Glass enabled eyes forward to 2014. What, I asked him, are going to be the really big deals in 2014?
Apple, Apple and Apple, Scoble predicts. Firstly, there’s going to be what Scoble calls a “war of wearables” between Apple’s iWatch and Google Glass in the next twelve months. Secondly, traditional television is about to be finally blown up by products like Apple tv. And, Scoble says, if Tim Cook really wants to radically change things, he can spend all those Apple billions on something really big – like NFL tv rights. Thirdly, Scoble says, Apple has the chance to truly win what Fred Vogelstein calls the “dogfight” to control the $250 billion media industry.
But Scoble isn’t just a misty eyed Apple fanboy. He sees great potential for Amazon in 2014, a company that, he says, “knows” his buying habits better than anyone. And he even thinks that Microsoft – if the new CEO could unchain all its remarkable talent – could make a dramatic comeback in next 12 months.
But the biggest winner in 2014, Scoble says, may be what he calls “iteration”. There won’t be any truly new-new things in 2014, he says. It will be a year of refinement rather than revolution.