Nobody wants to give Windows Phone a chance except for Robin and a whole bunch of analysts. Back in September, IDC and Gartner predicted that Windows would overtake iOS for the number two spot in the market by 2015, and Windows Phone head of marketing Achim Berg called that prediction conservative.
Now iSuppli has joined in, predicting that Windows Phone will grab a 16.7 percent market share by 2015, while Apple’s market share is expected to decline from 18 percent to 16.6 percent in 2015.
Perhaps “overtake” isn’t the best word, since the predictions we’re looking at offer up a .1 percentage point difference. Still, Windows Phone shouldn’t be taken lightly. The partnership between Nokia and Microsoft is a powerful one, even if Nokia’s had a rough go of it lately.
The Lumia 900 is expected to be the most solid Windows Phone offering to date, and every Windows Phone I’ve played with thus far has far exceeded my expectations.
What’s interesting, however, is that iSuppli doesn’t see Android losing much share at all. In fact, Android is predicted to grow from a 47.4 percent share to 58.1 percent in 2015. You’d think that with fragmentation abounding and infuriatingly slow updates in the Android camp, Windows Phone would be digging into Google’s share as much as Apple’s.
At the same time, we must never forget that Apple launches one model at a time, while hundreds of Android-powered handsets hit the market each year. Past that, the iPhone is a premium product and plenty of Android handsets can be found for less than a Benjamin.
In any case, there’s no harm in a third mobile ecosystem gaining a presence in the market. More competition means we all win.
Windows Phone 7 is the successor of the Windows Mobile 6.5 mobile operating system in development by Microsoft, scheduled for release by October 2010. Microsoft’s goal is to create a compelling and predictable user experience by redesigning the user interface, disallowing partners to modify or replace it, integrating the operating system with other services, and strictly controlling the hardware it runs on.