WSJ: Facebook Revenues For 2010 Could Hit Between $1.2 To $2 Billion
Jason Kincaid
Mar 3, 2010

Late last year, we published a list of the top 10 IPO candidates of 2010.  Leading that list was Facebook, which has grown to 400 million users and is finally starting to turn on the revenue pumps as it works toward its inevitable IPO. But this evening, the Wall Street Journal published an article penned by Jessica Vascellaro that may dash the hopes of anyone who thinks that will happen in the immediate future. The lengthy piece, which is well worth reading in its entirety, touches on quite a few issues related to Facebook’s history and its future, and largely revolves around CEO Mark Zuckerberg — who doesn’t sound all that keen to take his company public.

While the article covers a lot of familiar territory about Facebook’s past, there’s plenty of new information too. Of note, the article says that Facebook executives have “discussed how revenues for 2010 could hit between $1.2 to $2 billion” — figures that exceed even the $1.1 billion InsideFacebook’s Eric Eldon reported yesterday (clearly, the number is looking big). The article also asserts that Facebook is working on a tool for sharing your physical location with Facebook (something that we’ve been hearing about for quite a while, and that I believe will be key in the future).

With regard to Facebook’s IPO, the article discusses Zuckerberg’s penchant for “delayed gratification”, which he says he has a special capacity for.  And because Zuckerberg still maintains firm control over the company, and when it will IPO, delayed gratification seems to be the law of the land.

There are also a handful of interesting anecdotes about Zuckerberg. According to the article, a Facebook engineer once wrote an internal memo called “Working With Zuck”, in which he warned other employees not to hope for much in the way of back-patting from their CEO, explaining they should not “expect acknowledgment for your role in moving the discussion forward; getting the product right should be its own reward.”

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  • foobar

    Who cares about revenue. What’s their P/L sheet look like?

  • http://www.vikitech.com Viki

    Yup! “PUSH” is working for TechCrunch quite well. I got this post in my feed reader within 30 seconds.

    Now that’s real-time!

    With Google also deciding to start real-time indexing, the web is going to get a major speed boost.

    I just hope in WordPress 3.0 they enable PUSH feature for Rss/Atom feeds, just like they did for WordPress.com

  • Jay

    ugh.. WSJ and their paywall.

  • Jones

    I’m starting to wonder how much these WSJ “journalists” get paid for these overly positive prophecies.

  • http://www.blackysky.com Ricardo

    co sign this… what’s their P/L sheet looks like for real…. 400 users to feed with games videos pictures and updates that’s alot… that’s maybe why is not rushin to go IPO

  • http://snowedin.net Erik

    Here’s a link to the full article: http://bit.ly/9AVG3Z

  • d Williams

    300 million ignorant stupid lifeless people click on stupid ads and play stupid games to make a group of really smart, lucky, hard working people filthy rich.
    That’s the story, always has been, always will be.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=664708244 Mike Watkins

    WTF, why would you link to a post that we can’t access without paying? Fail.

  • Sean

    Why does every story about Facebook have to include some cheesy picture of Mark Zuckerberg?

    Back on topic…

    > inevitable IPO

    Why is it inevitable? Why does a large company need to go public? Having to bend over for your shareholders always puts your customers last.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=664708244 Mike Watkins

    i take that back, thanks Erik

  • Fernando Ardenghi

    Facebook could have 400 million registered users, but only 200 million monthly active users.
    Perhaps the other 200 million had lost interest in using social networks.

    Which is the actual revenue of Facebook? USD 500 million? mostly by ads?

    If Facebook plans to reach the IPO, which will be its valuation?
    I think for less than USD700 million as venture capital you can launch another social network to rival Facebook.

    Fernando Ardenghi.
    Buenos Aires.
    Argentina.
    ardenghifer@gmail.com

  • http://jippidy.com George

    You can’t become profitable without revenue. Wish they would hurry up and go public so the average guy can buy some stocks and LEAP calls. Just wonder what the valuation would be. Curious if anyone knows what topline grow rate for FB is?

  • dont hate

    wow..300,000,000 stupid people..thank God we have smart people like you.

  • joihjoij

    yea facebook isnt inevitable to go public, zuckerberg has said multiple times he doesnt want to.

    besides they arent even profitable yet…

  • Dumb

    Facebook has 400M monthly active users. Facebook does not publish their registered users number (which is probably in the billions). Please think before you speak.

  • Stats
  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=784767541 William Grecia Blanchard

    Facebook is powering external and emerging multibillion dollar infrastructures and the weird thing is that they are not even aware of it yet, but they will.

    Facebook is a trillion dollar company. If you don’t believe me, then you are not using their API correctly.

    I will say thanks to Mark and the Facebook team for their gracious offering with Platform. Just know a few of us “get it” and will be introducing these “surprises” sooner than later.

  • Harris Teeter

    The 1B revenue figure is hard to support. Facebook and Google have the same number of pageviews daily. Google has 23B in revenues at search RPM’s that average over $100 in the US. For Facebook to do $1B, it has to have a page yield over $5 in the US. Bull.

  • http://hireplug.com Rajan Chandi

    @William Grecia Blanchard

    Exactly, We are launching a SAAS based on Facebook Platform shortly and the companies are excited.

  • robert

    Why does it feel like some one is trying to sell me a real sour lemon?

  • d Williams

    i didn’t say i m smart. let’s just call me stupid. me and the vast majority of my fellow Americans.

  • MyLocator ™

    people that go to facebook are not customers, they are freeloading, time wasting, nonproductive users.
    if someone cares about the user they would have an off switch to turn off all the nonsense game/gift feeds.
    Funny that FB is making the same mistake of myspace. branding themselves as a social playpen/romper-room/arcade. users will grow up and find better niche social sites to hang out. friends can only take you so far in life and then its all about where your socially located and who you know. FB is a terrible place to brand yourself.
    I want them to go ipo so they can be banned from receiving anymore crunchie awards.

  • lararge

    if people are clicking on facebook ads, i think its mostly click fraud. i have NEVER clicked on their ads and do not know why anyone else would.

  • rock and roll blogger

    because Mark Zuckerberg is the image of COOLNESS. Without him, the facebook users might think that their beloved social network is really just another corporate media machine. It isn’t right? Mark Zuckerberg wouldn’t do that… I saw him on a skateboard.

  • rock and roll blogger

    Hear Hear Gentlemen for Facebook is indeed A PROFITABLE AND USEFUL PLATFORM WITH A VERY EXCITING FUTURE AHEAD OF IT.

    when will facebook run out of PR money? thats when the real shenanigans begin.

  • rock and roll blogger

    more like a hot steaming turd.

  • http://www.adrianeden.com Adrian Eden

    Never go public. Private companies are more profitable to the core group and adapt quicker to change.

  • http://www.origin2501.com Ziad

    70% of Facebook users are outside the United States

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=511844225 Foo Yee Chong

    hmm are they even profitable with 2B in revenue?

    they’re probably going to grow much more, build/buy more infrastructure along the way, which in turn gets them even more users.

    when’s the point where the revenues are much much more than the infrastructure/personnel costs?

    maybe they don’t have that plan at all, maybe they’ll keep growing (and take funding) until they’re a trillion dollar biz and then sell out.

  • http://www.jtmarketing.co.cc/?p=189 How To Make Over $200 a Day Using Facebook | JT Marketing

    [...] WSJ: Facebook Revenues For 2010 Could Hit Between $1.2 To $2 Billion [...]

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=511844225 Foo Yee Chong

    if they don’t go public, then their investors DST/Microsoft/Peter Thiel & Gang are not gonna make a 10x or 100x exit.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=511844225 Foo Yee Chong

    sure, they could just wait each year till profitability comes and reap the profit split from that. but that might take years to cover back the huge initial rounds ( DST had 200 MM invested)

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=511844225 Foo Yee Chong

    if FB doesn’t go public, how will it justify (aka pay back) the huge amounts of investments made?

    i think someone’s got to make money somewhere down the line.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=511844225 Foo Yee Chong

    hmm, how about calling it all part of a “social experience”. that kind of justifies it.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=216847 David Braginsky

    Dividends? Stock buybacks?

  • http://www.hummba.com Mark

    I dont think its a case of exit strategy for the investors. There are some pretty big players and I’m sure that they will grow tree and live off the fruit. Richard Brandson took Virgin public and it didnt work out too well, as he likes to control where his company is going. I dont see Mark sitting infront of his newly found 25421 shareholders explaing why he is moving the status update button 4 pixels to the left.

  • Sean

    > I want them to go ipo so they can be banned from receiving anymore crunchie awards.

    I don’t necessarily agree with most of what you have to say, but this statement is spot on :)

  • http://colnect.com Collector

    Very interesting stats to read, 10x.

  • http://www.uk-shoppingonline.com/ UK Shopping

    As long as the user base keeps growing the VC’s will keep feeding them cash and there won’t be too much pressure to figure out their long term revenue model. If the user numbers top out, then they will have to seriously work out how to monetise all those users.

  • Joschmo

    Facebook, growing and growing without profit until they stop growing, and then start losing money. MySpace all over again, but will fall much harder. Social Networks are like clubs, it’s only cool for so long, and then everyone moves to the next coolest thing.

  • http://www.gamecreds.com Tim

    Have you guys been living under a rock for all these months?

    Facebook is slowly moving toward totally owning the way micro-transactions occur on their Platform.

    That’s where the real money is.

    It’s pretty damn sure that in a near future, all Zynga/Playfish/etc… payment will be processed through Facbeook mechanisms. Pretty much the way Apple has it with iPhone Apps.

    And this accounts for a LOT of money.

  • http://www.ibidlow.com Oz Har Adir

    These figures make sense ($3-5 per user per year), and as far as I’ve read, anywhere above $2/user is at least an operational profit.

    Facebook has been busy developing the product experience and spent very little time/energy/people on monetizing it until 2008. Since doing that, their revenue growth is quite phenomenal, and as long as people keep loving the site – they would improve this revenue per user figure over and over.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=824418118 Gilad Parann-Nissany

    Give Zuckerberg credit. Bill Gates also took a long time to IPO – he said he didn’t need the money and didn’t like Wall Street looking over his shoulder.

    “Delayed gratification” is an ironical trait in a person responsible for Facebook. Lets face it, FB is a big part of today’s always on, instant-gratification world.

  • meena

    Up to 2B in revenue and yet privacy issues and some hacking spree events are still not resolved.

  • http://www.abctribe.com Jerry

    The are stupid also outside USA …

  • Sean

    Soical Network usually die down after a while because people go on to the next trend. What I can’t figure out is my did Facebook took so much VC….

    Another big question I have is who is going to pay $15 billion for Facebook…….

    Eventually Facebook will stop growing than what are they going to do…….

  • http://dontmindrick.com/links/links-for-2010-03-04/ links for 2010-03-04 | Don't mind Rick

    [...] WSJ: Facebook Revenues For 2010 Could Hit Between $1.2 To $2 Billion [...]

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=784767541 William Grecia Blanchard

    @Rajan

    Good to hear. I am laughing at these haters.

    Mark and the Facebook team are geniuses and other geniuses are coming board, will be great to shake that man’s hand one day.

  • http://www.hireplug.com Rajan Chandi

    @William Grecia Blanchard

    Are you the Owner at The Retail Zip Company?
    I think we can connect on LI.

  • chris janota

    I’m going to use that comment for my daily DB status update. If you don’t mind.

  • toddq

    it might be true that 70% of users are from outside the US but I bet those 30% of users from the US make up 70% of their revenues.

  • Rock in Roll Blogger

    apparently receiving investment money is profit in Silly Con Valley.

  • Rock in Roll Blogger

    who is going to pay? umm… the Chinese?

  • Rock in Roll Blogger

    like!

  • http://technosoc.blogspot.com/ Hamlet

    i can get 2 billion of revenue but then i spend 2.1 billion! they should tell us ebit and ebitda! and why didn’t Zuckerberg tell us revenue of 2009 (whihc is a exact number and not a prediction) ?

  • http://www.bhuio.com Ben Holyfield

    The chinese “Facebook” Tencent already made 200 million in net profit.
    As almost everything in Facebook is free, I don’t think they are getting close to this…
    http://www.chinaknowledge.com/Newswires/News_Detail.aspx?type=1&NewsID=31822

    No wonder Facebook is blocked in China…

  • venture crapitalist

    Are public companies not able to receive Crunchies? I thought Goog has won (or at least been nominated) at least one Crunchie.

  • http://mattearle.com matt earle

    It has to go public because the people who run it want to be actual billionaires with a diversity of assets, not just paper ones.

    Going public for facebook is how Mark Zuckerberg and the other people who own lots of facebook shares can go from being very very rich to astronomically rich – selling little pieces of their company to a huge market of hudreds of thousands of investors.

  • http://mattearle.com Matt Earle

    Seriously, anyone who thinks they need to be worrying about profitability as opposed to revenue is out to lunch. A lot of their costs such as hardware and bandwidth are halving every year.

    Most advertisers, especially small ones have no idea how to use facebook advertising or how it even works. This awareness while still very low, is constantly and rapidly increasing for them. This is their potential.

    I agree it sucks we didn’t think of this and of course we are all guilty of a bit of jealousy but this company is not going to fail. When they do IPO, buy early and buy big.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=784767541 William Grecia Blanchard

    @Rajan,

    Yes that’s me. The FB included property is http://www.str3em.com.

    Pretty much it is the infrastructure that offers everywhere media to succeed optical disc (CD, DVD, Blu-Ray). We are finishing V2 now and already working with a A-list business broker to offer to successors :)

    Please link with me at business@str3em.com

    Thanks.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=784767541 William Grecia Blanchard

    Would love to present STR3EM at TC Disrupt, but since I am working with that broker, I think that invalidates us (since we are already talking to possible buyers).

  • http://andrewjkaplan.com Andrew

    What amazes me is the convergence between Twitter, Google and Facebook. As they fight to become king of the social Web, so many common features are emerging: news feeds or short status updates, geo-location, a move away from privacy, mobility…I think in the end one of the defining differences between the platforms will not just be how you connect with your contacts, but what kind of contacts will dominate each platform. Meaning, will your activity on each platform focus on your close friends and family, people with common interests you haven’t necessarily met in the real world, random strangers you stumble across because they happen to be active within a 1-mile radius of your current location…

  • http://andrewjkaplan.com Andrew

    Good point, but think about other ways Facebook makes money that Google doesn’t touch: virtual goods. So advertising alone might not get FB to over $1B, but factor in the sales of virtual items and suddenly you have your answer.

  • John

    Have you ever try to advertise on Facebook? Every 40 minutes the suggested bid price go up by 200%..

    Suggested bid: $.30 to $.40
    after 40 minutes:
    Suggested bid: $1.20-$1.30

    Also , FB application platform is buggy in updating the number of users/active users.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=6703354 Marcus Pratt

    headline should read: “Facebook Revenues For 2010 Could Hit Between $1.2 To $2 Billion; Zuckerberg still Looks Like a Total Tool on Camera”

  • marc b

    The 400 million number, has always sounded suspicious to me because, just like all the people who supposedly have hundreds of “friends”, it seems unlikely that all those users actually use facebook in a significant manner to where their use translates into real ad value.

    Sure companies are throwing money at fb for ads and people are wasting money on games and stupid little non-existent gifts, but does it translate into sales of real stuff? In my opinion, facebook as such massive problems with its structure, flow, and organization that once the fairy dust wears off; there is nothing but disappointment. If they don’t get off their rocker and address the grumbling undercurrent of dissatisfaction of their community base, I think there is a real danger that something will come around that will give fb a death-knell similar to MySpace’s experience.

    I will not hide my boredom and annoyance with facebook because of things like the transfer of Page ownership (creator status), which still cannot be transferred if such page was not created in violation of fb’s own rules and policies by having been created by fake Personal Profile account not backed by a real person or a duplicate personal account.

    In a quite spiteful way, I hope that Google kills facebook dead in a hail of fire with Buzz, just to provide another example of how it is fatal to ignore the user and thus forget the frangibility of the internet.

    Maybe some others have been feeling the same as many of my friends and I have, that facebook seems lame and unfulfilling because the rough corners that users are generally patient about having smoothed out, are not actually being addressed.

  • Bigles

    They are selling you a polished turd. And notice how many astroturf posts there are on this (and any FB) thread.

  • marc b

    ok, so I am not the only one that has notices the apparent obligatory image of Zuckerberg.

    I think this might warrant a net-meme any mention of facebook must include a picture of Zuckerberg. I guess in a way it already is an unrealized net-meme.

  • http://www.emarketer.com Samson Adepoju

    According to this Associated Press article, eMarketer expects worldwide ad spending on Facebook to hit $605 million this year. That would be a 39 percent increase from 2009.

    The WSJ numbers seem a bit high.

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jI2A5XyVztlP_4tyDnPDtx1fbMRQD9E7F2S03

  • http://stilltitled.com still titled

    Jessica Vascellaro’s cover-story in the WSJ seats Facebook in a tension between going public and Zuckerberg’s remarkable ability to “delay gratification” and take a seat in “a long queue of tech barons with grand ambitions.” The real story, however, may be in her subtle jibes at one who might become “world’s richest twenty-something.” More than a thinly veiled personal attack, Vascellaro may be hinting at something more substantial: that the question of privacy in the 21st century will be meaningfully shaped by an ambiguous and controlling figure.

    http://stilltitled.com/2010/03/04/privacy-ambiguity-zuckerberg/

  • Vica

    The size of revenue could also be dependent on how successfully FB can convince their users to do more beyond keeping in touch with friends and playing games. The platform started as a living room, where people come to connect. Now it’s also a shop, a bank, a billboard…all in the same room. The additional interactions will happen if their products are superior to their competitors’, and/or the information they provide is truly unique.

  • Mike Del Sol

    1. Is anybody making money by advertising on facebook?

    2. Is anybody making money by advertising on google?

    I spend a decent four digit sum every year on ecommerce and have never bought anything motivated by a google or facebook ad. Never.

  • Foobar

    Citation needed.

  • ding ding

    ding ding ding ding ding ding ding!

  • whatever

    I don’t trust facebook. I had an account on facebook for about 2-3 months, and never logged on when I found out Zuckerburger stole code from ConnectU, and CIA invested in facebook.

    Obviously, 400million accounts do not represent 400 million users. And not all users are equal. People outside of US and Europe are worth less to the advertisers than people with say $60-100K income range.

    The operative word is “could” Facebook “COULD” hit between 1-1.2Billion revenue. I believe this article is written so that people can pump up facebook’s stock price on secondary markets, which by the way is already overvalued by a factor of 2-3.

  • http://urbangeardaddy.com/2010/03/03/maybe-there-is-some-focus-on-the-advertisers/ Maybe there is some focus on the advertisers « UrbanGearDaddy

    [...] Given facebook’s projected 2010 revenue projection, they appear to be doing somethign right (though not yet to full potential or their projected [...]

  • whatever

    Couldn’t that 40 minute price hike be programmed into their bidding system?

    I mean, if you are dumb enough to pump money into Facebook advertising, you are a dumb fuck.

  • sputnik

    why didn’t they build the platform to achieve that in the first place? Don’t tell me it was because they were trying to be open. They missed it – like they’ve missed lots of other things.

    I agree that there is some jealousy around Facebook – back between 2000 – 2005 lots of us saw the future of a scramble for the monopolistic online network and a few of us thought it could maybe change the world. A few of us believed it was a battle between good and evil to control this network. A few of us believed it would change the world.

    The reality is that we have Facebook, which keeps power in the hands at the few and drives our lives towards the bottom line of the few rather than using this network to power and finance the sustainability of our species. Back in 2004 the potential was there to achieve this – a different model to the limited liability company.

    Looking at the costs they have had to keep alive it now looks like you would never have built this without the funding that the capitalist system provides. It was probably inevitable and a more equitable system would not have worked. And looking at people’s behaviour on facebook and the basic drivers of the site which focus on individual’s selfish and subconsious desires. It was probably inevitable and the old idealists need to wake up and try and work out how to move the network back to the greater good. And that’s not setting up a Page and getting a million follwers.

  • http://www.areaunix.org/2010/03/05/yahoo-contacts-gets-facebook-connect-3/ Yahoo Contacts Gets Facebook Connect « AreaUnix

    [...] products to build a social graph. Perhaps Yahoo CEO shouldn’t bite the hand that feeds her. CrunchBase Information Facebook Yahoo! Information provided by [...]

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  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=511844225 Foo Yee Chong

    i think this brings us back to the 95/5 system of ads.

    you might be in the 95% of ppl who never respond to ads, but there’s that 5% who bring extremely good kickass money to the networks.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=511844225 Foo Yee Chong

    agreed! facebook credits has been launched for big name social gaming companies like zynga/playfish, and facebook take a 30% cut. the system looks good, payments are seamless. and they’ll eventually open up to all developers.

    man I feel sorry for the “payment platform” companies like offerpal, superrewards, etc. they have to innovate or die.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=511844225 Foo Yee Chong

    hey what do you ppl think about social gaming companies on the fb platform? are they there to stay and play by facebook’s rules?

    I’d say, take facebook for what it is, build an awesome kickass brand around the games, and extend it to other platforms. so far zynga’s doing pretty well with farmville.com and the farmville iphone app.

  • vcbyday

    best.quote.ever

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=621599484 Paramendra Kumar Bhagat

    These revenue numbers are looking very impressive. What’s the breakdown though? I don’t Zuck can postpone an IPO forever. I think he is waiting for the recession to be over. Then people will have the money to buy and buy his stocks.

  • http://www.d4bmarketing.com Dave Finkelstein

    Facebook goes public, short it! 400 million users. How many active users? How many active. Juts how much farmville can an adult play.

  • http://www.ironmarketer.com/facebook-marketin.php Facebook Marketing – Yay or Nay?

    [...] WSJ: Facebook Revenues For 2010 Could Hit Between $1.2 To $2 Billion [...]

  • http://discourseandnotes.com/blog/2010/03/16/not-yet-ready-for-an-ipo/ Not yet ready for an IPO – discourse and notes

    [...] has no official business model, let alone sustainable revenues, let alone profit. Facebook has revenues and profit, but nothing that would rationally justify its private market value in a public transaction as the [...]

  • http://globecorp.biz/341/2010/facebook-is-taking-over-google-it-sounds-the-web-is-becoming-truly-social/ Facebook is taking over Google : it sounds the Web is becoming truly social : Globe Corp

    [...] the social network remains far in the shadow of Google in terms of revenues. Those could reach 1 to 2 billions dollars in 2010,… twelve less than the [...]

  • http://twitter.com/eBizROI @eBizROI

    Does anyone know if Facebook is profitable and can point me to some authoritative source to substantiate? Everybody is concerned about privacy and rightly so. I agree that Facebook could simplify this. That said, if your are disatisfied with the Facebooks privacy policy, or you don’t get enough value out of Facebook use in exchange for handing over some of your personal information to “trusted parnters”, just opt out of using Facebook altogether. It’s a free country and last I checked, we had a capitalist economy – i.e. Facebook is not a not for profit, they are in business to make money. Facebook can provide great value for small to medium sized businesses to communicate with their clients, especially for a B2C businesses. This can be done outside of the use of Facebook paid ads by effective use of the fan/like button and promoting your company page through a variety of channels. If we preclude Facebook from leveraging user data to provided targeted, relevant ads in exchange for free use of its service, we may find that the service becomes a paid service, like a Classmates or MyLife and those complaining about privacy practices when then complain about paying subscription fees to keep their data safe wihle funding the tremendous cost required to share 5 billion pieces of content each week.

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