2009 Tech Prediction Faceoff: J.P Morgan Vs. Barclays Capital

Two notes from Wall Street analysts came to my inbox today with top-ten predictions for what 2009 holds in store for the technology industry. J.P. Morgan’s Imran Khan, for instance, predicts Yahoo and Microsoft will finally strike a search deal, video advertising on the Web isn’t working, retail bankruptcies could actually help e-commerce companies, and that M&A activity will pick up in the second half of 2009 (but the IPO market will be dead until 2010).

Barclays’ Doug Anmuth thinks that both Yahoo and eBay will make major strategic moves this year to try to right their businesses, distribution wars in search will break out between Google and Microsoft, and there will be consolidation among the 300-plus ad networks out there. Both believe that performance-based advertising will continue to rise in importance.

Rather than reproduce all 20 predictions from both analysts, I’ve picked six from each and listed them below. You can vote for your favorite predictions, or the ones you think are most likely to happen, in the poll at the bottom of the post. (I also threw in a couple extra ones for good measure from John Battelle: “Google will see search share decline significantly for the first time ever” and “Yahoo and AOL will merge”). Add your own predictions in comments.

Imran Khan’s 2009 Tech Predictions (J.P. Morgan)

1. Potential search deal likely between Yahoo! and Microsoft
2. Net Neutrality should become an important mainstream issue
3. Challenges in monetizing video advertising should persist
4. Mobile usage should continue its strong growth momentum, but mobile
   advertising will likely be challenging this year
5. Possible bankruptcies in brick-and-mortar retail should create opportunities
   for eCommerce companies
6. M&A consolidation activities could potentially resume during 2H’09 (IPO market is dead until 2010)

Doug Anmuth’s 2009 Tech Predictions (Barclays Capital)

1. Yahoo and eBay will make major strategic decisions
2. Performance-based advertising will be more important than ever
3. Increased Competition For Search Distribution Via Toolbars, OEM Deals, and Partnerships
4. Proliferation of Smart Phones Will Drive The Mobile Internet
5. Small Strategic Acquisitions Will Re-Emerge
6. Ad Networks To Consolidate

Which Is the Best Tech Prediction For 2009?
( surveys)