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This week Brian Heater, fresh off a trip to Pittsburgh to visit a handful of robotics companies, led a discussion about the current state of robotics and how startups are integrating the machines into our lives. When it comes to our home lives, we really only have the Roomba, that circular disc that moves about our floors on its own sweeping up the dust and dirt. In fact, the jobs being performed behind the scenes are the ones robots are digging into.
Obviously we’ve got some fairly unrealistic expectations about robotics that have been served up to us by sci-fi and things like that. And when we take away the state of consumer robotics and household robotics, the best we can do at the moment right now is the Roomba. Which is obviously quite far away from being Rosie the Robot idea that has been promised to us since the 1960s.The rub of all this, however, is that we tend to not actually see them in action. In automation, there’s a concept of three Ds, which are dull, dirty and dangerous. So they’re the jobs that these robotics are basically designed to adopt.
He also touches upon the fear of robots taking our jobs. What he found is that, no, you don’t have anything to fear — unless you’re an elevator operator, he says, and even that’s not across the board. But there is a political response to that by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who said at SXSW last week: “We should not be haunted by the specter of being automated out of work. We should be excited by that. But the reason that we’re not excited is that we live in a society where if you don’t have a job, you’ll have to die. And at its core, that’s the problem.”
And it’s not robotics discussion without mentioning Amazon. Heater recently visited an Amazon fulfillment center on Staten Island to give you a peek at how robots help get your packages to you on time.
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Danny Crichton: This is Danny Crichton, Executive Editor of Extra Crunch. Thank you so much for joining our conference call this Wednesday afternoon. Joining me today is Brian Heater, who is based out of New York, although who has been an itinerant traveler on the hardware beat for the last couple weeks. Brian, thank you for joining.
Brian Heater: So as some of you no doubt know, we’ve been ramping up for our third annual TC session robotics event. That’s going to be happening in just under a month from now on the UC Berkeley campus. I encourage everyone with the means who is interested in robotics to attend the event. It’s really become one of my favorite TechCrunch events in recent years.
Great. It’s become one of my favorite Tech Crunch events in recent years, and it’s a rare opportunity to sit in a room with some of the sharpest minds in robotics and AI, and I will be there as well. So there’s that plug right off the top.
Because of this event, I’ve spent a lot of the last month and change visiting some of the top robotics companies in the country. Last week, we were in Pittsburgh. We visited about five or six startups, and checked out the Carnegie Mellon (CMU) campus. Obviously TechCrunch by itself is in early-stage reporting, and the same is true on the robotics front. We’re going to be sharing a lot of those videos over the coming weeks, showing some trips taken from the early startups and laboratories and places like CMU, one of the foremost schools in robotics at the moment.
We actually even spent one of the days at a coal mine in the Pittsburgh area, which is certainly something that I did not expect when I signed up for this gig. One of the things that’s been really striking about it for me over the past year or so is how many of these bites are actually already in use right now. I think we tend to get hung up on the idea of over promising and under delivering when it comes specifically to robotics.
Obviously we’ve got some fairly unrealistic expectations about robotics that have been served up to us by sci-fi and things like that. And when we take away the state of consumer robotics and household robotics, the best we can do at the moment right now is the Roomba. Which is obviously quite far away from being Rosie the Robot idea that has been promised to us since the 1960s.The rub of all this, however, is that we tend to not actually see them in action. In automation, there’s a concept of three Ds, which are dull, dirty and dangerous. So they’re the jobs that these robotics are basically designed to adopt.
And you can do a lot with robotics, any good robotics advocate worth his or her salt will tell you that robots are actually taking the jobs that companies are having trouble filling. I know that’s not accurate across the board, but there’s certainly some truth in all of that.
That is that most of the work being done by robots is actually occurring behind the scenes at places like plant inspections. We’ve seen a lot of drones out there doing photography inspecting. Power plants, things of that nature. And last week when I was in Pittsburgh, I actually met the head of the Bossa Nova Robotics Company. They make a robot that’s actually designed to cruise up and down the aisles of various stores. There’s limited interaction with humans, and that’s by design, essentially. It goes from one end to the other and spot checks all the shelves with the inventory of the system. The company’s biggest partner at the moment is Walmart, which is obviously one of the largest companies in the world. Surprisingly enough, the robot has been deployed in about 50 stores, so that’s about 50 robots across the country ensuring that they’re all fully stocked with Clearasil.
When Amazon wanted to deploy a robotics company, they actually went out of their way and bought one, picking up Kiva Systems for about $775 million in 2012. It was the second-largest acquisition at the time. And I think it’s pretty safe to say that has been paying off in a big way. A little bit more on that later. I just wanted to start by opening up to any questions that anyone might have so far.
Crichton: Brian, when you look at the difference between startups and larger companies, where do you see a lot of the innovation coming from in terms of the next generation?
Heater: You know, it’s interesting. We’re actually sort of seeing mostly the ground up right now. A lot of these companies that we’ve been talking to … Kiva Systems is a good example. Started off as a startup. Bossa Nova as well. I don’t see, say for a Samsung and a couple of these sort of larger electronic companies around the world, not many of them are actually building these things in house. It really seems to be an organic movement at the moment.
So last month, we were at Amazon JFK fulfillment center in Staten Island. That opened a little over a year ago, so it’s still got the new factory smell. The whole thing was done with relatively little fanfare, which I think is pretty interesting in light of the fact that there was a huge push on the part of the New York City Council when it came to open up a Q2 over in Queens. A very different situation, of course. This is a company opening up a fulfillment center and looking to employ about 2,250 people.
The space itself is 855 square feet. It’s absolutely gigantic. It’s very overwhelming when you first visit it. What’s really mind boggling, however, are all the robots that are being deployed in the space. So Amazon’s current figure is about 100,000 robotic systems deployed over about 25 or 26 fulfillment centers across the country. Which I realize sounds like a completely absurd number when you think about it. Until you actually have a moment and visit a state and stand there and realize just how many of these things are being deployed right now in order to get these packages delivered to people on time.
It’s these robotics, again, which were at the heart of that acquisition in 2012, or really at the heart of this operation as well. Again, another plus for what we’ve been doing on the site, but I highly recommend that you check out the videos that we posted on the site today, because these robots are essentially … I would best describe them as being very large Roombas with shelving pods attached. They are these big, circular robots. They have a shelving unit, and they drive around a closed space. Basically, the only thing I could think of when I looked for them was essentially a batting cage area. And they drive around in these really tight lines.
On either side of the space are Amazon employees, Amazon calls them associates. And it’s essentially their job to read a screen and pick and place from these different trays. So picking stuff off, putting them on, and then dropping them down a chute to then get delivered to somebody.
Amazon actually gave us what I think was pretty unprecedented access to the space. Obviously the company was looking for good PR at the time. Keep in mind this was when push was really coming to shove, and they were trying to open their Queens offices. In fact, I think about 10 minutes before I was on the phone, one of the heads of Amazon Robotics announced they were pulling their bid for the Queens space.
The other reason why we were there is because we broke the news a couple months ago about this Amazon Robot safety vest. So this is essentially looks a bit like a bright red construction set that’s got a bunch of sensors built in. And all of those are built to interact with the robot. So if somebody is standing on the floor when this thing’s on, these robots will basically stop or slow down as they approach the person. People are not intending to … They’re not actually intended to be around the robot. But obviously things can go wrong. Even with robots, something can either fall off the shelves or the robots can break down, in which case it’s the associates to kind of run in there and go fix things. And that’s kind of an added step to make sure they’re safe.
That brings up another really interesting question. We’re going to talk to automation, which is the question of safety. Again, as I said, at the beginning of the call, which hopefully you heard through some pretty rough reception, was that the role of these robots are to replace jobs that are deemed to be dirty, dull, and dangerous. So in a sense, these things are really safety devices. But at the end of the day, we’re talking about these high end, heavy, cold pieces of metal. Accidents can happen, especially in a tight space work area.
Obviously it’s in the interest of companies like Amazon to make sure that these robots are as safe as possible. I think that’s one of the ways they’re doing that. A lot of companies are looking toward doing visualization sensors. Again, it ends up being, in addition to the fact that obviously Amazon wants to keep their employees safe, it’s really going to be very bad PR the first time one of these robots ends up injuring somebody in the line of action.
There was a story from late last year which you may have read about a can of bear mace that exploded in one of these Virginia fulfillment centers. It was initially reported as being the result of getting caught up in the gears of the robot. So when we met with Amazon last month, they categorically denied that.
Ultimately, however, it doesn’t really matter how the dozens of people were sent to the hospital to deal with these bear mace explosions. Because any sort of bad press is ultimately going to be doom and gloom for these sorts of things. People tend to go very negative when it comes to Robotics. Which of course includes the concept of job loss, as well.
So I’m going to actually pull up some projections that I’ve got here.
The best source I’ve seen in all of this, there’s a great MIT review article that came out last year titled, Every Study That We Could Find On What Automation Will Do To Jobs In One Chart. And it’s about a dozen wildly different numbers from a dozen wildly different sources. So everything gets broken up into two … let’s see, there’s jobs destroyed and jobs created. If we look at, for example, the Forrester numbers from 2018, we’re talking about 13 million jobs destroyed and 3 million jobs created. The McKinsey projections by 2030 is between 400 million jobs and 800 million jobs destroyed, and between 550 million jobs and 890 million jobs created. Which again, are vastly different numbers.
But I do think that if we see a theme here, for the most part in the short term, we are ultimately talking about job loss. Project it far enough, and we’re ultimately talking about a lot of jobs being created. So again, for every one of these either a fulfillment center jobs or a job in something like a self-driving car. The flip side of it is that there are going to be a lot more potentially higher-wage jobs being created in the process. So essentially people designed to programming robots and develop robots and care for them. Maintenance is obviously going to be really big. That’s something even in the fairly short term that we’ve seen, and medium growth space as well.
I mean, I talked to a technologist a couple of years ago as we were pulling some stories for the last one of these AI robotics events. And he told me, and I think this is a pretty common refrain when you talk to people who are very bullish on robotics. And the sum of it is that the only jobs in the 20th century that technology has fully replaced is the elevator operator. I will say though to that, coincidentally, I was at an event in Manhattan yesterday, and I did have an interaction with an elevator operator. So I feel like not even that is fully accurate.
But obviously, you get the point, which is that there has always been a displacement of these sorts of jobs when it comes to automation. The industrial revolution was a huge part of that. But no job sector has completely gone away. Which, all this reminds me of a quote from, so I’m going to ask everyone to put their personal politics aside on this one, because I think, we’re very supportive of where you happen to fall on the political spectrum. But, it’s some pretty interesting insight into this.
So at South by Southwest a few weeks ago, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was on stage, and somebody asked her the basic question that everybody has when it comes to automation about robots and jobs. And the installation of what she said essentially … Actually, let me just go ahead and quote her on this. She said, “We should not be haunted by the specter of being automated out of work. We should be excited by that. But the reason that we’re not excited is that we live in a society where if you don’t have a job, you’ll have to die. And at its core, that’s the problem.”
Again, so regardless of where you happen to fall on the political spectrum here, I think there’s a lot to be said for that comment. Which perhaps the conversation that we should be having right now shouldn’t be, the end all and be all should be these projections that we’re looking at from all these groups. But rather the quality of the jobs that are being displaced here. Again, if you talk to anybody in the robotics realm and a lot of these folks who run factories and are looking towards automation, toward the factories, they’re telling you that a lot of these jobs are ones that they’re ultimately having more difficulty filling.
A good example of that is there’s a company out in Massachusetts called Soft Robotics. It’s somebody that we’ve dealt with a few times over the years. We have had their CEO on stage, and I think at the first one of these TC robotics events, we did a demonstration of … It’s basically a pick and place soft robotic hand that’s able to pick up a variety of different objects. It’s very useful when it comes to things like food and produce. If you think about things like that, really irregularly shaped things. Again, even when a robot’s job solely is to pick up strawberries, there’s a great difference in size and shape of these different objects.
She was telling me that they were dealing with a company, again, that does frozen pizza. So it’s essentially the robot’s job on a conveyor belt to pick these large blobs of pizza dough. And the company was trying to find people who could fill these jobs. And it was nearly impossible to do so, because everybody who was working on the line in addition to the general … Again, one of the three main components of the job is the repetitiveness of having to sit on a conveyor belt and pick up pieces of dough in five-second intervals. Besides the fact that it was being done in the freezer section.
So in spite of the fact that, especially at the time we were hearing all of this economic doom and gloom about these terrible jobs figures. They were finding it completely impossible to hire someone to do the passing the time. So again, short term, I think we’re filling a lot of that in the automation space. Are these jobs taking the place of jobs that employers for whatever reason are having a difficult time trying to fill.
Crichton: Brian, one of the questions that at least I have … Connecting Amazon into this automation crisis, I mean, have you seen any of the larger companies who obviously have a lot of intense political focus on them these days … how are they addressing automation? Because clearly Amazon wants to automate, but also employees, tens of thousands of people in its fulfillment centers. How are they balancing kind of the layout for that?
Heater: Yeah, it’s obviously a very tough line for them to walk. Again, I think in addition to the space that they have in New York City, one of their reasons why they kind of gave us this unprecedented look behind the curtain was because we were hearing a lot of very negative feedback about working conditions in these factories. So you can actually sign up for one of these now if you’re in the New York City area. I think they just opened up a large fulfillment center over in Baltimore. As far as I can tell pretty much anywhere where there is one of these large fulfillment centers, you can go and tour it. It’s like a Disney tour. They will take you around and point out the space to you and show you that everything is hunky dory. That the employees are being treated very well.
Because especially, Danny, if you were ever to attend this and a little bit of political pressure on the space, you end up hearing all these stories about … Sorry, I’m going to be crass about this. But the story out there, and it’s all over the place. You can read about this on our own site for example, are stories about employees being pushed to the limit and were literally being forced to work so much in such a short time period and get so many boxes out that they were actually peeing in bottles, things like that.
I think that there is certainly a possibility for a company like Amazon to actually spend this on automation in their defense, and to show people that “look, there’s been a lot of negative push back about us working these employees to the bone.” This is an opportunity to kind of basically counteract that with automation. Certainly nobody’s going to be complaining that a robot is being pushed to the limit and being forced to put out a certain number of packages during the day.
Again, during the conversations that I’ve had with the executives on the robotics team, I think the flip side of that is the concern that as companies like Amazon look toward automation, do we risk the problem of people’s jobs being automated? Again, it’s very striking to go into the space and to see these robots and people working with one another. Certainly, I think it’s pushing people from the standpoint of making them work a lot harder and work a lot faster. But the flip side of that, and what Amazon will tell you, is that the question is that they are essentially deciding which jobs are … whether humans or robots are better at this end of the spectrum.
So there are certain things that robots are better. There are certain things that people are better at. Another example I think comes down to the, again, a recent conversation that I had with the CEO of Bossa Nova Robots, the company that is working with Walmart. That video, so that should be going up in the next couple of weeks or the day before the event in April. This robot that they have …
An important detail that I left out is the inventory robot, it cruises up and down the aisle, checks QR codes, makes sure that everything is supposed to be where it is, and alerts the staff if there’s a shortage of something. But it’s very difficult, for example, to build a robotic arm. And it’s even more difficult to build a dexterous robotic arm. So as advanced as the company is coming out of CMU, and as impressive as its product is, all it does is roll up and down the aisle and check for products. It is not going to be interacting with anything on the shelf, and obviously that is a place where a human employee comes in.
Crichton: Brian, a number of the robotics CEOs out there like to talk about how robotics technology will enable a lot of bottoms-up innovation, or people making their own DIY products, and just tapping into more of these companies more as a fast product for managing different aspects of the software. But what are you most excited about just in terms … Or if you think the democratization of robotics is a real thing. What are the opportunities there?
Heater: Yeah, so I am kind of a crystal ball tech journalist at this point. I’ve been doing this for a very long time. And one of the things that left me particularly jaded was the pre-3D printing revolution that we haven’t quite seen. I draw a lot of parallels between robotics and that. Again, I think a lot of the most innovative heavy lifting is basically happening behind the scenes with a lot of these industrial 3D printers. And the real super exciting techie thing that we were promised when it came to consumers were these super-fast 3D printers and make robot things like that, that were supposed to energize the DIY movement and completely radicalize hardware production.
We’ve seen a little bit of that. I think that there was rightfully some excitement when it came to prototyping or generating Kickstarter or Arduino, things like that. But it got overpriced and it died out pretty quickly. For that reason, I’m a little bit skeptical when it comes to these sorts of things. The flip side of that was the idea of education, which I think is a very important part of this conversation.
Any politician that is worth his or her salt should be talking about education in terms of things like automation and robotics. It’s two-fold. So one that it must include K through 12, any sorts of theme education should involve some aspect of coding, programming, things like that. I think we’re starting to see that in major ways. There’s been a huge push toward that in the last five or so years.
And the reason why it’s important is actually two fold. One of which is that a lot of logic are important skills to have. There’s a lot of important logic skills to be gained when it comes to things like programming and development. And then the second part of that is that there’s just going to be really important jobs moving forward.
Again, in the short term, many of the jobs that we’re going to see displaced by robotics are a lot of these, economists call them low-skill jobs. Which it’s not meant as a slight so much as the fact that these are jobs that don’t really require a lot of education. So a lot of it is going to be going away. And if we’re lucky, if things work out well, they will be displaced by a lot of these higher wage jobs. So things like programming and development. So obviously, it’s really important to get kids involved in that early on. And I do think that companies ought to be … excuse me, my voice is going away.
But companies ought to be beholden for the education of employees as well. So hopefully for every one of these jobs that goes away, there is some sort of internal education happening at these spaces. I think Walmart, or I think Amazon, has provided a fairly good example of that. Half of these jobs in this fulfillment center are the people that are working in tandem with robots. And then another portion of them are people who have essentially been trained on how to fix the robots. That’s going to be a really important factor moving forward.
Again, I try not to jump the gun too much when it comes to these sorts of things. I think it’s really important to set expectations, especially when it comes to robotics. When we were traveling around and meeting all these startups and students at Carnegie Mellon and universities like that, one of the conversations I had with them is there’s a reason why every year we go to a different place. So two years ago it was Pittsburgh. And then we went to Boston, went to Darian, and now back in Pittsburgh. And it’s the fact that these things tend to iterate very slowly. It takes a really long time to bring up the next generation of products.
You know, Bossa Nova is a good example of a company again that has a really impressive robot, but it had been working on it … I mean, they’ve been working on this thing for ten years. So it’s important to set our expectations on that front. I think also it’s important to set our expectations when it comes to consumer robotics as well. I think it’s quite a bit, but there’s a lot of truth in it. We’ve been promised consumer robotics for a long time, and at this point, there is really only one successful example of consumer robotics. And that’s the rumba. It’s been around for 12 years and it does one thing. But it does that one thing pretty well.
We’re going to see I think in the next several years, things are going to start speeding up. But again, when I think it comes to this space, it’s important to really kind of temper everybody’s expectations as far as innovations.
Great. So yeah, I just wanted to kind of wrap things up by talking to this idea of something that when we sent this thing out earlier, we were talking about automation when it came to start ups. I think the earlier question that was an interesting one with regards to who’s actually on the robotics side of things. Again, a vast majority of the most innovative products that I’ve seen right now are essentially spinning out of places like Carnegie Mellon or MIT, Berkeley is a pretty good example of this as well. The really interesting robots are the ones that are really pushing the space forward are the ones that are basically coming out of the laboratory right now.
You know, I alluded to the fact that Samsung started a robotics wing and we got to see a bunch of them in action, like the CES. I don’t know if you’ve seen the video. But robotics that Samsung was presenting were interesting from an entertainment perspective. I got the idea and Samsung would fess up to this, that again it was almost like going to one of those shows at Disney Land, the presentation. So there’s this big event on stage, and then afterwards we had a smaller event where they showed the robots off to us. Somebody standing on stage with one of those Garth Brooks microphones and walking us through these robotic scenarios. There’s basically one of them was essentially an Amazon Echo on legs. One of them was designed for senior health, which is a very big category right now in places like Japan for example where the population is really kind of aging out, and we don’t have … They can’t find enough people to work with their older citizens, so they’re getting into robotics.
But more than anything, it really looked like a lot of robots that were kind of being created for show. We didn’t get any timelines, so I’m not holding my breath anytime soon, actually seeing those things. But there is a lot of really fascinating innovation happening out of these smaller companies when it comes to things like … Agriculture is a really big place to look. Medical is a great place to look. I don’t know if you’ve seen the da Vinci Robot, but that’s a surgical robot that’s been in action for some time.
The flip side of that is I don’t believe that we’re really at a point right now where when it comes to these large behind the scenes industrial robots that makes a lot of sense for startups, that the next few years, I think it’s very interesting with regards to automation in the startup realm. Obviously when we talk about companies like Amazon and Walmart, we’re talking about two of, if not the two largest companies in the world right now. So these are companies that can certainly afford to pay the hundreds of thousands of dollars for a robotic system.
Other companies like Boston Nova can be essentially working with Walmart. They had to tell our partners, in fact they actually announced as partners prior to this Walmart deal. And I’m actually just kind of sitting here waiting to get news at some point. Most likely that Walmart’s going to be acquiring them. In the meantime, I’ve not seen too many instances where employing a robot’s release makes sense for smaller companies. The average price of these things are absolutely astronomical. And if you’re an online e-commerce company, it takes a lot of time to make up the cost for that. So I would wait for some of these larger companies to deploy it and the price then comes down on them quite a bit.
Beyond that, the only real applications that I’ve seen from sort of smaller companies of robotics are robots that are employed certainly for the novelty. Soft hands for robots, if you’ve seen that, we have a fairly good example of that. A number of years, they bought a French company that was developing some really impressive robots. It’s almost ubiquitous in the laboratory space. They bought this company, and they translated it into this basically large robot that could stand outside of your business and hold up a tablet. So that always does concern me.
That was certainly a concern, for example, at Boston Dynamics, who were building these really impressive robots that when push comes to shove, they’re really going to be required to monetize them. So they announced on stage last year at our event that they’re going to be coming out with their first consumer version of one of those robots. And that I think ultimately is one of the concerns for a lot of these startups as they start to age and kind of blow through their money. Boston Dynamics essentially said iRobot’s got it, because they had developer funds early on. The difference between the two companies is that iRobot found a way relatively early on to pivot and become profitable.
Profitability is going to continue to be a huge hurdle when it comes to robotics companies, which are very, very expensive to run. We’ve actually seen over the past couple of years what looked from the outside to be successful automation and robotics companies shutter because they were unable to monetize. So I’m running out of voice right now, and I think I’m running out of time as well. So thanks for joining us, and if anyone has any more questions, I think we can take a few before we close out.
Caller question: Brian, besides Bossa Nova and Boston Dynamics, what other companies are worth keeping an eye on that are doing good innovation?
Heater: It’s a really good question. I again, I would actually look towards the spaces that most require automation right now. I think the agricultural spaces are really interesting one there that we’ve seen. A lot of really fascinating companies come up to doing work in the fields, plowing, things like that. Food service is a good thing to keep an eye on as well. And then any sorts of companies, can they place a space in something that is going to be exploding in the next several years.
Soft Robotics is one that came up earlier. Playground. Playground has another company called Gammet that makes an autonomous factory robot. Canvas is a good one to keep on as well. They essentially make these modular cart robots that, again, basically clean out warehouses and pick up products.
Caller question: Brian, if I can follow up on that last question. So San Francisco and a couple other cities at least have a lot of … You’re starting to see these automated burger places and coffee shops. Do you get a sense that that stuff is actually getting traction from what you hear from people that you talk to in the industry? Or is it still this showcase stuff that the business model and their technology maybe isn’t there for scaling?
That’s a good question. I have not seen one to date that is anything … at least any outward facing ones that aren’t anything but novelty at this point. As I was on this trip last week and I was standing at one of these start up spaces, I got an email from the company that was showcasing a robotic bartender at South by Southwest. Right now, I think that the fact that these things are basically for getting people through the door. Sort of the excitement of seeing a robotic arm serve up for people is kind of the one real driving force for them at the moment.
Again, I do think that there’s a lot to be said for this happening kind of in the background when it comes to food preparation, especially any sort of fast food chain whose job it is to get a lot of burgers out. There are some interesting … There are going to be some interesting things around automated food trucks and AI. So using AI and machine learning to determine when and where to drive the food truck. So interesting applications right now. But I’m not seeing any in that space that definitely gets me excited.
Cool. I think that’s about it. So yeah, I wanted to thank everybody for joining us. Thanks for joining us, and thanks for being an Extra Crunch subscriber. We appreciate your support. So thanks again for joining us. Looking forward to another one of these very soon.
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