Nintendo is putting Super Mario Run out for everyone on December 15, which is just one short week away. The new mobile game is the iconic plumber’s first official outing on iOS or Android, and it’s likely to be a big win for Nintendo, even as a free release with in-app purchase as its primary sales model.
Played might not pay anything up front for Super Mario Run and some initial play through experience, but they will need to spend $9.99 to unlock the full game, and that could create a lot of early revenue opportunity. Sensor Tower has been working out what its initial revenue picture might look like, and are projecting a respectable $71 million in gross revenue for its first month on the App Store, which is not a success on the scale of Pokémon Go or Clash Royale, but which still puts Super Mario Run solidly among the top three all-time performers in mobile gaming – provided it proves accurate.
Sensor Tower’s prediction is based on pre-registration numbers, which are in the millions, and an assumption that the IP combined with the gameplay quality will result in a fair number of its initial downloaders making the leap to the $10 full unlock.
Conversion is still the key ingredient for Nintendo, however, according to Sensor Tower’s Randy Nelson. He notes that even the top performers on the App Store have trouble getting free users to cough up cash, particularly at the $9.99 price point that Nintendo is looking to offer. Nintendo’s perspective, however, is likely that it does very well in the console world with titles starring the same red-overalled moustache man at far higher prices.
We won’t have to wait long to find out how far Mario’s charm goes in drawing in mobile fans; if you’re curious about how the game plays before December 15, you can also check out our initial hands-on, or visit an Apple Store for demos loaded on display phones.