Shares of U.S.-listed Chinese companies, and especially technology concerns, are ripping higher this morning. Driving the day’s trading were comments from Chinese government official Liu He concerning both foreign-listed Chinese shares and the pace of reform in the country’s economy.
Yesterday, The Exchange noted that a selloff of Chinese equities had steepened in recent days; uncertainty regarding the Chinese government’s COVID-19 policies, its closeness to the increasingly ostracized Russian government, rapid-fire regulations on major tech companies, and a shift in government thinking regarding its economy — the “common prosperity” effort — had rattled investors.
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Today, however, in light of the pronouncement, things are looking up for Chinese companies, at least in valuation terms. For example, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index, comprising 93 different U.S.-listed Chinese companies, shot nearly 18% higher this morning. Alibaba and Baidu are up 17% apiece, shares of Bilibili are up 30%, and so on.
What’s changing?
The comments in question — here, in Chinese — indicate, per a CNBC translation, that the “Chinese government continues to support various kinds of businesses’ overseas listings.”
For holders of foreign shares of Chinese companies, that’s a relief given market concern that companies could be forced to delist. The document also notes that regulatory work should be completed rapidly — more welcome news. Other topics were mentioned, including monetary policy, the country’s real estate market and Hong Kong.
That the Chinese government is potentially retreating from the posture it struck last year when it was busy going after Chinese tech companies’ business models, labor practices, data policies and capital sources is incredibly important. Not only for the companies directly impacted by the day’s news, but also startups looking to build in the country.
Recall that we saw an early indication yesterday that the pace of venture investment in China is slowing in the first quarter. No single factor can claim the full mantle of responsibility for that change. But many contributed to it, and if China is willing to keep open more avenues for exits — foreign IPOs — while creating more regulatory room for companies to build, well, it’s a good recipe for more startup activity.
The Chinese venture capital market once challenged the United States’ VC market in activity terms. Those days are now years past. But leading status or not, there are a lot of folks who want to build in China, so we’re tracking their fortunes.
Too late?
If data does indicate that Chinese venture capital activity slowed in Q1 2022 by a material percentage, it’s fair to wonder if today’s news is a bit tardy. After all, the damage won’t unwind instantly in the public markets; it will take time for trust to return. That could limit a snap-back in venture activity, as private-market investors love certainty and clear paths to liquid returns. No single document can engender that confidence.
So the day’s news is good for Chinese startups, but it may be late enough that recovery is slow. And there’s some concern that the regulatory bull is more talk than substance. Noted China observer Bill Bishop had the following to say this morning:
Others agree. Lillian Li, a market observer with a focus on China, summarized her read of the day’s news as indicating that “more regulations will be coming,” but perhaps at a slower pace and with “a lot more heads up beforehand with the market to clear the air and not create unnecessary market panic.”
Precisely how far the Chinese government will really change its tune, then, is not completely clear. But after a long run of bad news, it’s hard to fault the stock market for rallying on what could be considered a life raft from the central government. More when we get Q1 data on the Chinese startup scene.