Why Robinhood is getting hammered today

Update: When we wrote this, Robinhood’s stock was off double-digit percentage points in pre-market trading, and opened under $10 per share. So, it was current as of then. Since that moment, however, Robinhood shares have flipped around and rallied. Read on for the bearish setup the market was flashing at the start of the day, but keep in mind that Robinhood reversed its declines at least by midday trading!

The 2020-2021 trading and investing boom lifted a number of companies’ revenue growth, fundraising and narrative strength. Some of the best-known even went public on the back of a global trend that made their businesses shine. Now that shine is fading, and the value of select fintech concerns is in free-fall.

The best example of this reversion is Robinhood, a company that became synonymous with consumer trading and investing activity, and the meme stock craze in particular. That Robinhood added crypto trading in recent years, adding to its torrid ascent, merely makes its recent results all the more pertinent to the ways public and private markets have changed in late 2021 and so far in 2022.

Robinhood’s stock fell sharply yesterday and dropped further after the company reported its Q4 2021 results. As of this morning, Robinhood stock was worth around $10.85 per share, 71.5% off its IPO price and 87.2% off its all-time highs. What happened? Let’s find out.

What makes Robinhood valuable

The simplest way to consider Robinhood’s business is to multiply active users by average revenue per user. Users — monthly active users, or MAUs — help the company generate payment for order flow and other incomes. Average revenue per user — or ARPU, if you are into truly awful acronyms — is just that, allowing us to consider the company’s general health as MAU*ARPU = results.

More of either is good, less of either is bad. More of both in any quarter is great, less of both in any quarter is probably a disaster. Got it? OK, let’s talk numbers.