2020 will be a moment of truth for foldable devices

Phones were not the centerpiece at the recently wrapped Consumer Electronics Show; I’ll probably repeat this point a few more times over the course of this piece, just so we’re clear. This is due, in no small part, to the fact that Mobile World Congress has mostly usurped that role.

There are always a smattering of announcements at CES, however. Some companies like to get out ahead of the MWC rush or just generally use the opportunity to better spread out news over the course of the year. As with other categories, CES’s timing positions the show nicely as a kind of sneak preview for the year’s biggest trends.

A cursory glance at the biggest smartphone news from the show points to the continuation of a couple of key trends. The first is affordability. Samsung leads the pack here with the introduction of two “Lite” versions of its flagship devices, the Galaxy S10 and Note 10. The addition of the line lent some confusion to Samsung’s strategy amongst a handful of tech analysts around where precisely such devices would slot in the company’s portfolio.

And while it’s true that there are, indeed, some off choices here (the Note has a headphone jack, while the S10 doesn’t, for instance), the intent is clear. Ever-increasing flagship prices are a primary driver in stagnating global smartphone sales.

Consumers may still want high-end devices, but many are understandably not interested in or willing to pay $1,000+ for the honor. Like the iPhone 11 and Pixel 3a, the devices represent a sort of alternative history when the smartphone race didn’t result in the adoption of components that continue to drive up the cost of high-end devices.

CES has also seen the arrival of reasonably priced 5G products. No surprise there, given Qualcomm’s announcement of the Snapdragon 765 back in December. More than anything, this is good news for carriers. While spotty rollouts and some fairly convoluted messaging around 5G had hampered adoption for some, a lack of affordable devices may have been the key bottleneck.

TCL launched the sub-$500 10 5G. And then there’s the $359 Legacy 5G from relative unknown, Coolpad. Consider these devices the tip of the spear for a new wave of affordable 5G handsets set to crest late next month at Mobile World Congress. 5G was still a major topic of the show, however, just less so on the phone front. With carriers set to make major coverage strides in the coming year, the subject has turned to things like IoT, connected cars, smart cities and other wireless technologies looking to piggy back on the high-speed networks.

The appearance of foldables at the show, meanwhile, was downright lacking, with only an already announced TCL concept to show for it. Perhaps we’ll see more at MWC, but my suspicion is that Samsung’s woes have put the industry on its heels as far as the form factor is concerned. There’s something to be said for being first, or at least early to something, but at this point it might be best to just see how things play out for Samsung and the like.

Interesting, foldables had their strongest showing on non-smartphone devices. Lenovo’s most fascinating news of the show was the ThinkPad X1 Fold. The latest take on the convertible, the device is essentially a 12-inch tablet that can be folded up and stowed away. Dell, too, offered a concept device based on a similar principle.

It was one of countless concepts at the show. More so than in past years, these sorts of hypothetical devices were one of the defining aspects of the show. Samsung’s ridiculous keynote was probably the clearest example. The electronics giant took last year’s robotics demos a step further by making the concept the cornerstone of the presentation. It was a far cry from the television and washing machine parade of years past, showing little more than a notion of a future that could be. It seemed like Sony’s reveal of a car would be tough to top on the conceptual front, but Samsung managed to do so in spades with its robot parade a mere half an hour later.

TCL offered a lot on the concept front, as well, as the company attempts to get a weary phone-buying public excited for its forthcoming branded devices. It was OnePlus’s less exotic Concept One, however, that managed to capture the most attention. The company’s first concept phone featured a neat trick designed to hide the camera lenses when not in use.

I anticipate seeing more companies flirt with concept devices going forward. MWC may well be downright littered with them as manufacturers grapple with the future of the category amid slowing sales. After flying high for a decade, the future suddenly seems uncertain for the smartphone, and 2020 will very much be a moment of truth.

CES 2020 coverage - TechCrunch