The number of objects in orbit around Earth has been growing, and growing fast. Before 1957, of course, there were a total of zero human-made objects in the orbital region of outer space just beyond Earth’s atmosphere. There were 4,987 satellites orbiting the globe at the start of this year, according to the U.N. Office for Outer Space Affairs, which is up nearly three percent from the year before. 2017 was a record year for orbital object launches, but with ambitious new satellite constellations planned by SpaceX and others, that’s a record that’s likely to be beat in relatively short order.
Nor are all of those satellites equipped with modern technology: All told, 8,378 objects have been launched to orbit according to the UNOOSA records, and a sizeable percentage of those spacecraft are more than a few years old.
In fact, earlier this month, Bigelow Airspace was informed by the U.S. Air Force that there’s a 5.6 percent chance that one of its satellites could collide with a Russian ‘zombie’ satellite no longer in operation, and one of Starlink’s satellites had a near-miss with one operated by the European Space Agency.
A new industry organization called the Space Safety Coalition has just issued guidelines outlining best practices for companies operating spacecraft in low-Earth orbit, with signees including Immarsat, Iridium, Planet, Rocket Lab, Virgin Orbit and more.
I spoke with Walter Scott, the Chief Technical Officer of publically-traded space tech company Maxar Technologies, about the new initiative, in which longtime space operator Maxar is a founding member, and why now is the right time for the satellite industry to self-regulate when it comes to sharing low-Earth orbital space.
“The best time to solve a problem is before it’s a crisis, even though that doesn’t seem to be normal human behavior,” he told me.
“As we look forward, we see that the number of spacecraft in orbit is projected to go up significantly. That’s driven by a couple of things – but fundamentally, it’s that the cost of getting into space has come down. It’s come down to the point where because of low launch costs, because of rideshares, and the ability to build toaster-sized cube sats, that even elementary schools are capable of putting up satellites, not to mention the mega-constellations that are currently planned for communication and other missions.”
“You also have what has been a shift in the satellite operators,” Scott continued. “Historically, satellite operators have had quite a bit of experience operating in space, but you’re now seeing as space access has become easier, there are operators that have less experience operating in space. The combination of that with the increased number of objects in orbit is not a good combination. So we felt that it was time to begin codifying practices, that as members of industry, we could adopt and follow in much the same way as when you gain a critical mass in any industry it generally leads in the establishment of standards, because governments, frankly, tend not to move that fast.”
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To date, there have been some initiatives to ensure that there’s some kind of collaboration between business and other entities operating in near-Earth space. UNOOSA, as mentioned, monitors launches and active orbital objects, and oversees international laws and treaties that set ground rules for official outer space activities by state actors.
But for a surprising amount of commercial space activity in particular, there’s been almost an ‘honor system’ approach to avoiding conflict, whereby operators just have to hope their peers have good intentions and practices.
“That’s the classic tragedy of commons that has resulted in things like overfishing,” Scott said.
“We don’t want to have that happen in space. And that’s part of the reason why with these standards that we’ve proposed, there’s an expectation that everybody will sign up and do their part, as opposed to assuming it’s somebody else’s problem. An attitude of ‘Oh I don’t need to put propulsion on my satellite, or have any kind of GPS to be able to tell other operators where I am – it’ll be their responsibility, they’ll get out of my way’– that doesn’t work when you’ve got thousands of objects in space.”
The proposed standards for operators put forward by the Space Safety Coalition includes encouraging information sharing about current position and planned maneuvers; ensuring planned de-orbit for spacecraft that have ended their operating life; making sure that operators stipulate good vehicle disposal practices for launch providers they work with on bringing their ships to orbit; incorporating propulsion or other avoidance mechanisms for their satellites; and adopting best practices for security to help harden orbital spacecraft against attacks by bad actors, including hobby hackers keen to take satellites for ‘joy-rides,’ for instance.
For a lot of startups who see space as a new and exciting greenfield opportunity that’s addressable now that launch and spacecraft construction costs have come down to within VC-funded striking distance, an industry coalition imposing a lot of rules might seem like a friction point to contend with.
But Scott notes this is actually about ensuring everyone can continue to operate successfully. The coalition can ensure there are new opportunities that arise as a result of not only enforcing best practices for future orbital spacecraft, but also taking care of the problematic legacy debris that already exists in high-traffic areas.
“If we roll the clock a little bit forward, I do think that eventually, there will be mechanisms for getting the bigger pieces debris out of orbit,” Scott said. “There are companies that are working on that — that’s probably something that will eventually come to pass. And for the mega-constellations, I know that there are analyses being run between whether to have super reliable propulsion and every satellite so that even if the main mission fails, you can still de-orbit it? Or do you put up what some people have called it an ‘Undertaker satellite’ in each orbit plane, whose job it is to essentially grab on to a spacecraft that has failed and lower its orbit so that it re-enters.”
Scott tells me it’s a bit too early to say how interested Maxar specifically is in this particular area, but speculated that it might be something that large mega constellation operators want to fund. To be sure, startups are already emerging that focus on in-space propulsion, and extending the operating lifespan of satellites via refueling, technologies which could indeed play an important role in making sure the increased commercial interest in low-Earth orbit can play out sustainably for all.