2011 is only five days old, but already we’ve got some pretty scary predictions for our infant new year. According to TechCrunch technology reporter, Alexia Tsotsis, several things about 2011 keep her up at night including:
– The US selling off Groupon to pay the national debt.
– A huge government leak of information.
– Facebook to IPO and thus change the world.
In fairness to Tsotsis, the first two predictions were made half-jokingly and the third was made before this week’s Goldman Sachs announcement that it was investing $450 million at a $50 billion valuation.
But, as always with the surrealistically oracular Tsotsis, there is more than a glimmer of sanity behind her madness. Her analysis of the “relationship” driven Facebook versus the “words” driven Google is particularly insightful – particularly given the fact that Facebook’s $50 billion valuation is, presumably, based on the assumption that the Internet will shift from a network based on words to one based on relationships.
“We are like fish,” Tsotsis says, about our failure to remember anything. And what may be most memorable about 2011 is whether it will be another year of complete amnesia in which we forget all the lessons of recent history and get seduced into another self-destructive bout of irrational exuberance?
2011 began with Facebook’s $50 billion valuation. For better or worse, it will be a year in which Facebook dominates not only the tech business but also our broader culture. So, on January 1st 2012, what will Facebook’s valuation be? If it’s over a $100 billion, then Tsotsis is right – we do, indeed, have fish brains. Happy new year, everyone!
What will Facebook kill in 2011?
What about 2011 keeps Alexia awake at night?