With e-commerce spending performing well over the past holiday season, retailers are hoping this trend will continue into 2011. J.P. Morgan senior analyst Imran Kahn has released his annual report forecasting trends for the New Year that includes a number of positive projections for the e-commerce industry.
The report forecasts that e-commerce revenue will grow to $680 billion worldwide up 18.9 percent from 2010 revenue. Online retail commerce in the U.S. alone will grow 13.2 percent to $187 billion. J.P. Morgan anticipates that global e-commerce revenue will hit a whopping $963 billion by 2013.
The number of people who shop online keeps increasing, with 38 percent buying at least once per month. And the percentage of people who don’t shop online declined to 12 percent in 2010 from 20 percent in 2007. Higher income consumers shop online the most often, with 34 percent of those making $100,000 or more shopping online at least three times per month.
While e-commerce spending may be growing, Kahn reports that the pace at which retail is moving online is less rapid than the online advertising space (See chart below). As of 2009, e-commerce was only 3.9 percent of all U.S. retail, however; online advertising represented 13.7 percent of all U.S. advertising.
The report also highlights other unsurprising trends. For example, Amazon continues to gain market share, as smaller players have trouble competing with the e-commerce giant.
Kahn writes that the growth in mobile commerce could negatively effect brick and mortar stores and that one potential weakness in e-retail growth is the possibility of an internet sales tax.