Analyst: Call Of Duty: Black Ops To Sell 20 Percent Fewer Copies Than Modern Warfare 2

We may be seeing the first signs that, just as people tired of World War II shooters, they may also be tiring of more modern variants. (Well, maybe the second signs. Medal of Honor may have gotten the first of the “OK, we’ve done this before” response.) Call of Duty: Black Ops will be released tomorrow—you know, for something that’s supposed to be a black op, this sure has seen an awful lot of publicity—and the big Cowan analyst predicts that, all told, it will sell less 20 percent less than its immediate predecessor, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2. Twenty percent less is nothing to scoff at. Or, to put this in Figure Four Weekly terminology: no buys.

It should be noted that, earlier in the year, Activision’s kingpin, Bobby Kotick, noted that Activision didn’t expect to top Modern Warfare 2’s sales, so it’s not like the lower sales will come as a shock to anyone.

Kotick blamed tougher competition this time around. Presumably he meant Medal of Honor.

Activision is still throwing a metric ton of money behind the launch. There’s going to be a party with musical guest Metallica in California. I believe we were half-invited: a sort of, fill out this form and we’ll let you know if you can come or not. Not that any of us were interested in flying 3,000 miles to attend a Metallica concert!

The funny thing is, I played Half-Life 2 again for a few hours yesterday, and it’s still better than all of these “modern” shooters put together. It’s six years old! You’d think someone out there would have at least approached that game’s quality, but no. Nobody has.