1up just had a little developer roundtable about the upcoming motion controllers (and, uh, the “leading brand” as well). While these guys are bound by diplomacy not to say stuff like “Sony is rubbish” or “Nintendo is going down,” they do make their feelings felt in slightly more polite terms. The consensus seems to be that each has its own strengths (I know, boring) and that innovation is going to be slow in coming.
After all, the first concern is selling units, and the truly innovative stuff happens after games and gamers have been observed. Even something like Super Mario 64, which certainly innovated in 3D platforming, built on other, earlier 3D or semi-3D games. The developers think you’ll see a lot of game+ releases, like say Tony Hawk with some extra functionality built-in, before you get games that are really living in the new control scheme.
Personally, I’m excited to see stuff move beyond the analog stick and/or cursor. That makes Natal the most interesting to me, but in the end it’s the games that will decide things.