Apple TV is still a hobby. The word comes from Apple’s Chief, Tim Cook who nevertheless championed the company’s current offering. He stated that Apple sold more than 2.8 million Apple TV units last fiscal year with 1.4 million moved within Q1 2012 (a new record for the device).

“Our Apple TV product is doing quite well… but in the scheme of things, we still classify Apple TV as a hobby. We continue to add things to it. If you’re using the latest one — I don’t know about you, but I can’t live without it. Other than that, no comment.” said Cook.

Apple HDTV speculation has run wild the last few years. It’s been said that the late Steve Jobs wanted a proper Apple TV but HDTVs have notoriously low-margin devices — Apple doesn’t make products they can’t make money on. That said, connected TVs seem to be the next big thing in the consumer space. Samsung made a huge splash at CES 2012 with their 4th generation platform. Previous Apple HDTV rumors place Apple launching two models sometime in the middle of 2012. But, as of right now, it’s still a hobby.

There’s a problem with the idea of an iTV, rumors of which have been sloshing about for a long time, but with greater intensity since Steve Jobs’ biography hinted at one. Unlike an Apple TV, an iPhone, an iPad, or other devices, an Apple TV wouldn’t be tied to a Mac, and it wouldn’t take advantage of iTunes the way those devices do. It’ll be related, of course, but it doesn’t promote the “hub” idea that drives iPhone owners to buy Macs, Mac owners to buy iPhones, and all the other crossover purchases that interweave the Apple ecosystem.

Instead, it would be an Apple-designed window into content that Apple has very little control over. And while you can bring a new idea to the TV space, as set-top boxes and Google TV have, you can’t make the TV space play nice. Google learned that the hard way. And it looks like Apple may be facing a similar challenge.

USA Today has a story on the so-called iTV, with a few juicy nuggets hidden amongst a bedding of fluff. They say that Jonathan Ive has a big, beautiful 50-inch television in his studio. And several sources describe difficulties on Apple’s part securing the content that would be necessary to make their device worthwhile. After all, people using a next-generation content consumption device don’t want to be told that Fox shows are available but not Universal ones. We’re supposed to be leaving all that 20th-century dross behind.

The thing is that guys meeting with Apple over show licenses aren’t stupid. They’ve seen what Apple has done to the music industry over ten years, and they have no intention of entering the lion’s mouth, as their friends at the labels did. In the early 2000s, of course, the labels had no idea that Apple was a lion, and really, neither did Apple. But things are different now, and the guys at Warner and HBO and Turner and so on are happy to make a power play. After all, until someone revolutionizes the channel by which people at large get their TV shows, they’re still king. And Apple can’t revolutionize without their express permission.

That’s not to say they don’t recognize an opportunity. They smell money, but they’re not willing to bite until they can be sure they aren’t falling into a trap. Some of them went along with Google for a lark, but as we saw, they didn’t like the way Google did business (they tend to want to give things away). Apple may be happy to charge, but they also tend to take quite a bit of the sale, and it’s likely that the content producers aren’t willing to let their prize possession, new TV shows, be used as a money-printing machine by Apple. And Apple doesn’t want to leave anything to the discretion of the content producers, who could deep-six the iTV at the drop of a hat and get into bed with Google purely out of spite. And believe me, the TV industry isn’t short on spite.

Difficulties, however, are not failures. They are made to be overcome, and Apple, if it indeed has its sights set on the living room and the burgeoning net-broadcast TV sector (for which people can be made to pay handsomely), will do what it needs to in order to seal the deal. Time, in the end, is on their side: they are sitting on enough money to choke the entirety of the TV business, and they know that their device will be a moneymaker for all involved (not the users, naturally). “Softly, softly, catchy monkey” is their motto. Google’s was a bit more “Leeroy Jenkins”.

Note that there is plenty of time for this to pan out, and the devices we’ll be seeing at CES next week will have a long, full life (which is to say, about six months) before we start seeing the inevitable reports from Digitimes of Apple ordering five million 50-inch LCD panels.

Editor’s note: Guest author Peter Csathy is President and CEO of Sorenson Media, a leading provider of encoding solutions. Peter was interviewed by TechCrunch TV earlier this year about how Hollywood is moving to the cloud. He blogs at Digital Media Update.

In 2011, the long-promised ubiquity of video—on-demand anytime, anywhere—started to become a reality, driven by mobile (smart phones, tablets).  While this may seem obvious, remember, it was not so long ago (a couple years, really) that most doubted that consumers would ever watch anything other than short-form YouTube-like video clips on the small screen.  Consumers are now beginning to watch premium long-form video (TV, motion picture content) on their most important screen on a massive scale, despite the frequent paucity of compelling content offered by service providers.  Yet, we are still in the early innings of this video revolution—so, we truly haven’t seen anything yet.  With this in mind, here are my predicted “big stories” for video in the coming year:

(1) TV Re-imagined. I have always expected Apple to release an all-in-one flat screen TV—think of a large-screen beautiful iPad on your wall—that will be called “iTV” in order to distance itself from Apple’s current Apple TV “hobby.” Apple’s goal will be to re-think the living room experience to be, well, more of an “experience” (rather than simply a “dumb” TV).  That means that, yes, it will be a beautiful and aesthetically appealing piece of hardware. But, it will be much more than that. It will aim to seamlessly marry that beautiful hardware with underlying services (including linear TV—more on that below), much as Apple was uniquely able to effectively do originally with the iPod/iTunes to transform the music business and the overall consumer music experience. Apple’s ultimate goal is to sell more hardware of course—using software and services as the Trojan Horse. And, Apple will be able to command higher prices—and significantly higher margins. There is no doubt on this one. If Apple builds it, the Apple faithful most certainly will come.

(2) Tablets on Fire. Not surprisingly, Apple’s iPad will continue to be the No. 1 tablet, but Amazon’s Kindle Fire will be closing in … fast, fast, fast (remember, it was recently reported that it already outsells the iPad at Best Buy).  Sure, version 1.0 of the Kindle Fire has some performance issues, but Amazon will knock those down fast.  And, “Amazon Prime” will begin to significantly challenge Netflix, as more and more of us are introduced to Prime via Amazon’s brilliant Kindle Fire maneuver.  Amazon’s strategy is completely the reverse from Apple’s. Amazon will use its hardware (the Kindle Fire) as the Trojan Horse to sell more services (especially premium video)—and, of course (and most importantly) to enable mobile shopping. Anytime. Anywhere. That’s Amazon’s huge advantage over virtually every CE company—Amazon is willing to take a significant loss on its hardware sales, because it is gunning for long-term continuous purchases of goods and services (including digital media).  Brilliant Amazon.

(3) Battle for Your Living Room & Cutting of the Cord. Not to be outdone, Google will continue its massive push—and billions of dollars in investment — into the premium video and “TV” world. It doesn’t matter whether Google’s initial experiments have worked so far (they haven’t); Google is patient and recognizes that we are still early in the video game.  Google covets the living room experience—again for very different reasons than both Apple and Amazon. For Google, it’s all about advertising of course—and monetizing video via ads is Google’s next great frontier. That’s why Google will stop at nothing. Google will even begin to take on the cable and satellite providers head on by offering full live linear programming (like ESPN) over the Internet and on their pipes.  Apple and other behemoths (Amazon?) will follow suit—and consumers will finally respond in real meaningful numbers to cut the cord from cable/satellite programming packages, thereby beginning to relegate cable companies to “dumb pipe” status.  Of course, this isn’t all bad for the cable giants, because margins on broadband services are significantly higher than those for premium content services (due to the high licensing costs commanded by the content providers); and, more premium video means that more consumers will need faster broadband.  This also is good—very good—for premium content providers like ESPN, because there will be more mega-customers vying to distribute their content; after all, content is still king).  With these behemoths (Google, Apple, Amazon) battling for a seat on your living room couch, smaller players like Roku will be faced with tremendous pressure to be swallowed up (or simply risk being marginalized). Expect significant consolidation in 2012.

(4) Personal Video Breakthrough. But 2012 won’t be just about premium video content. As a result of massive growth of smart phones with easy HD video capture anytime and anywhere, your “personal video”—intimate family and friend video memories/keep-sakes that you do not wish to share with the world on YouTube—will be, for the first time, easily archived, managed, shared and played back securely on any device and at any time (including in your living room and on the big screen) — and with HD quality intact. Think of Shutterfly for video.  A number of services have popped up in the past several weeks seeking to address this potential market (Shutterfly has its own video service, but it has not yet implemented mobile video sharing; Path is mobile and already supports private sharing of videos).  Companies will begin to significantly monetize this personal video opportunity in the latter half of 2012. Remember, family video memories are perhaps the single most valuable possessions we have . . . these are snippets of your life that can live on forever. And, once you invest in making a particular service a “home” for your personal video memories, you likely will never leave.  The switching “pain” is simply too great.  That is good for service providers.  Really good.  They now will have new ways to monetize with significant numbers.

(5) HD Video Ecosystem Growth Explodes. As a result of these and other forces, the demand for HD video-enabling products and services will grow exponentially—and video workflows will move at scale into the Cloud, beginning to seriously challenge legacy hardware providers.  All video must be prepared and optimized for delivery across all screens—including mobile and the living room.  This means solving all relevant and increasingly complex delivery issues that make heads spin for any content creator—device specification and detection, format and codec licensing and optimization, video resolution, frame size, network detection and optimization, adaptive bitrate delivery. (Disclosure: I believe video transcoding, which is what my company does, will be a key driver of this video enabling universe). Those services that easily and cost-effectively solve all of this complexity for content creators should fare well in the coming year.  After all, content creators want to focus on creation—especially when their avenues for distribution are becoming far greater than ever before.

Image via James Vaughn

Bad news for anyone who was looking to rent the latest episode of Top Gear from iTunes, as Apple has quickly and quietly removed their 99¢ television rental option today.

The functionality has disappeared from both the Apple TV’s interface and the iTunes store proper, signalling a drastic shift in Apple’s pricing policy. Individual episodes of a series can still be bought as usual, and movie rentals still cost the same going rates, so not every iTunes customer will be weeping over the loss.

AppleInsider has also found that support documents pertaining to iTunes episode rentals were similarly pulled, although cached versions can still be found for those who don’t mind a little digging.

In a perfect world, this would be a not-so-subtle signal that Apple’s looking at different ways to handle television rentals. Apple’s big push into cross-device music and app sharing with iCloud could carry over, and rentals could reappear in a new form (and maybe a new price point) but with the ability to be pulled onto any iDevice for the same 48 hour period.

Alas, it’s also completely within reason that factors like mounting studio strife forced Apple to axe the rental service. Major studios have scoffed at the low price tag for iTunes episode rentals, with players like NBC Universal’s Jeff Zucker stating that such renting episode for 99¢ “devalues” their content. Rentals, to be fair, weren’t terribly well-priced for people who have cable television, but here’s hoping they live on in a new shape.

Apple has been planning to launch a new cloud-based movie streaming service, which would allow you to re-download your movie purchases to other devices for no extra charge. The service, a part of “iTunes Replay,” was originally planned to launch within “the coming weeks,” according to multiple reports.

But now it seems that will not be the case.

The movie downloading service would have been similar to the newly added feature on Apple TVs which allows you to stream any TV show episode that you had previously purchased using your iTunes account. These shows appear in the “Purchased” section of the iTunes store on desktop and mobile, as well as on the Apple TV itself.

After this feature was added through a recent software update for the Apple TV, there was hope that support for movies was just around the corner.

Unfortunately, that support may be a long time coming.

According to CNET, citing multiple film industry sources, Apple has yet to sign agreements with four of the top six movie studios, and negotiations could continue for many months.

One of the problems has to do with the “HBO Window” – the period of time after a movie’s release on DVD during which HBO has the exclusive electronic distribution rights to the films. HBO has deals with three of the six major studios, 20th Century Fox, Universal, and Warner Bros., which means only HBO can stream their movies within that designated time frame. iTunes cannot offer streaming access to these movies at the same time.

While such a blackout period wouldn’t necessarily prevent Apple from launching a  cloud-based movie streaming service, it would make the service less attractive to consumers. However, it would not prevent Apple from signing deals with the studios not tied to HBO: Disney, Paramount, and Sony Pictures. Apple could choose to rollout a mixed offering, where some studio releases are available before others, even though they both arrived on DVD at the same time.

Image credit: MacRumors

A quiet update this morning to the Apple TV, seems to indicate a pretty big change in strategy. Of course, Apple would never frame it this way, but with the emphasis now squarely back on purchases, it seems pretty safe to say that the television show rental model was a failure.

To be clear, there are still rentals available on the device. But it’s the same limited selection of shows that have been in place for months now — Glee, Bones, 24, etc. And Apple doesn’t even have a section anymore highlighting which shows you can actually rent.

This is a big departure. Previously, you could only rent TV shows on the device. This was a bit odd since Apple has much more TV content available to buy. But in order to get it, you had to buy it on your computer (or iPhone/iPad/iPod touch) and then stream it to the Apple TV. That’s no longer the case. The update to Apple TV today brings the ability to purchase any TV content available on iTunes. And you can also easily access content you’ve previously purchased via the cloud — though it looks like the shows are still in the process of rolling out, as John Gruber points out.

To be fair, perhaps Apple had this in mind for some time. Because the latest Apple TV model only comes with enough storage space for buffering, TV purchases previously did not make sense. But with iCloud, content can now be streamed directly from Apple’s servers to your Apple TV. This works beautifully. I just purchased a season of The Wire from the Apple TV and nothing actually needed to download. It was only when I clicked on an episode to watch it that the device began calling for it from the cloud.

One has to imagine that this model will come for movies as well. Though for right now, movies are still rental-only on Apple TV.

Interestingly enough, my purchase of The Wire didn’t download the entire season anywhere, not even iTunes on my computer (though I can download it there now if I choose). This also points to the future of iTunes. I’ve been saying for a while that it’s not music, but video that is an untenable model for the service. Because HD versions of movies and television shows take up gigabytes of storage, the more you download, the more likely you’re going to run out of room even on standard desktop computers.

Full seasons of HD TV shows can easily take up over 50 GB of storage. Again, that’s just one season of one show. At some point, the only way that works is in the cloud with an unlimited amount of storage. And when you need to pull something down to take it with you, you can do that. That’s the model Apple now has in place with the television change.

My colleague Matt Burns calls this a full assault on the cable box, and the first real move by Apple to take the Apple TV beyond a “hobby” device. I agree, this is step one in that direction. But in my view, this move is even more about transitioning iTunes to the right model to be able to fully utilize iCloud. Apple TV is coming along for the ride, and is the perfect front-end to show how this change will work.

And it shows just how much TV rentals did not work. It was a year ago that talk began to circulate about Apple attempting to convince the networks to do $0.99 TV episode rentals. It sounded great, but it ended up being far from great because only Fox and ABC got on board. Unlike music, books, movies, and even TV show purchases, where Apple has started with a few partners and gotten all the major partners on board eventually, that didn’t happen with TV show rentals. The overall selection was far too limited for the model to ever take off. Today’s Apple TV update seems to be a full admission of that.

An Apple TV update is rolling out today. But this device update isn’t the news. Sure, streaming purchased TV shows to the device is a welcomed, but not really novel idea. Now, post update, users will have the choice to either buy or rent a TV show and stream it to their Apple TV. Great. But this update turns Apple’s little hobby into a full-fledged money-making machine.

The Apple TV is a sort of Trojan Horse. At only $99, Apple diehards and general consumers alike have been buying up the streamer in mass since it debuted. But it’s always felt, well, like Apple said, a hobby device or rather a side-project with an incomplete feature set and gimped media offering. Up until AirPlay, the Apple TV felt a bit like a sucker’s device, a high-margin product designed to draw out a few more dollars from Apple buyers.

Not any more. The Apple TV is now the living room division of what’s sure to be a huge offensive by Apple. TV episodes bought on any device now are now accessible on other Apple devices and vice versa. Spend $2.99 to buy an episode of Community and it’s available on your iPhone, iPad, Mac and now Apple TV. Don’t underestimate Apple’s reach now. TV shows are likely only the beginning. This cloud streaming storage method will likely work with movies as well — as long as the movie studios play ball.

Apple has long relied on iTunes for local content delivery. Plug in your iPod and your media library was synced to the the device. But this requires local storage, which is slow, expensive and not very flexible. Once Apple puts video content in the cloud, a device’s local storage is left to just handle the trivial task of storing music and photos.

The update seems to be only for the US market right now. Other markets are likely on tap for the coming days and/or weeks.

The Apple TV is no longer a hobby, for Steve & Co.. It’s now a made man of the iTunes cartel. Apple has always made it easy for its users to spend money. Forget renting a TV show, Apple wants users to spend three times as much, but have access to it forever on all of their Apple devices. Sounds like a fair deal to me.

I really wanted to do the headline without the Santa bit, but I didn’t want to be that much of an ass.

Regardless, let’s see how many people report this as fact just from the headline. In other words, let’s catch who doesn’t bother reading beyond the headline — or even the entire headline. In other words, let’s see who is an idiot that should be fired or stripped of their right to blog.

But wait, my headline does have a point beyond being a (weak) trap. My point is that if you believe an Apple Television is coming later this year, I have a nice iPhone nano to sell you. Catch my drift yet?

Earlier today, DailyTech reported that Apple would enter the television business later this year. No, they do not mean the business Apple is already in with the Apple TV, they mean the actual television business. As in, there will be a full Apple television set. DailyTech cites a source which they say is a “former Apple executive” who wanted “anonymity” but apparently didn’t mind being cited as a “former Apple executive” even though there aren’t many — and even fewer who would have any clue about this type of recent high level project. But I digress…

The key information from their source is that an Apple television is due this fall, it is meant to “blow Netflix and those other guys away”, there will be an OEM partner who actually makes the device (DailyTech predicts Samsung), and then Apple will re-brand it as their own and sell it in their stores.

Where to begin?

Admittedly, I don’t have much on this information beyond common sense. But that doesn’t mean I have no knowledge either. With that in mind, I don’t have any problem going out on a limb and saying this isn’t happening.

The Apple-made television set debate is one that has been going on for ages. There are plenty of people on both sides of why it would or would not make sense for Apple to get into this business. I’m actually on the side that believes that Apple will eventually get into this business. I think that for two simple reasons: 1) the potential (meaning mainly the living room) is huge 2) the industry (meaning mainly the television hardware business — including cable boxes) is very ripe for disruption. And even though extremely low margins dominate right now, I think Apple could figure out a way to sell their own televisions at their standard high margins.

Still, I just can’t see anyway that this happens this fall. Hell, I’d bet it would be unlikely for next fall too. Why? Because I’ve heard Apple has been pleasantly surprised by the moderate success of the newer $99 Apple TV which was released last year. It remains a hobby, but it’s becoming a more interesting hobby for them. And I think they intend to see what they can do with this product that has a relatively low barrier to entry and constitutes little risk for them.

We’re going to see some interesting things later this year when iOS 5 allows iOS apps to be mirrored to the Apple TV wirelessly. Step two is getting the apps running on the Apple TV itself. Remember, the new Apple TV also runs on iOS — there’s a reason for that. There will eventually be apps on the device.

I believe that happens before Apple tries their hand at making an actual television set. This will also buy Apple some time as component prices for the large screens needed for modern television sets continue to come down. Right now, the largest screen devices Apple makes are the 27-inch iMacs and Cinema Displays. They’re huge and beautiful — they’re bigger than my TV in college. But they’re not big enough to replace today’s living room TV sets. Apple needs to get to those sizes, and I think they will eventually, but it will take time.

The biggest problem I have with the DailyTech report is the notion that Apple would partner with an OEM to make the television sets. I have no doubt that some OEMs would kill to get Apple branding on their products. But Apple would never go for that. Apple’s entire essence is about being in complete control of their products. From concept to design to production to software to finished product, they control it all. Apple has ventured a bit outside of this strict creed a bit before. And we got the Motorola ROKR — a piece of crap.

If Apple does a television set, they’re going to make it. From concept to manufacturing to shipped product, it will be an Apple television.

The one interesting aspect of the DailyTech report is the notion that Apple is building this television to blow away Netflix. From what I’ve heard, Netflix is something that definitely intrigues Apple. As in, they may view it as perhaps the one online video model that works long-term. Obviously, the two sides have a deal to put Netflix on the Apple TV. And Netflix makes iOS apps. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple is thinking about their own solution in this space for future devices down the road.

While we’re on the topic of Apple rumors, why not briefly address a few others that have popped up today? Earlier, BGR reported that the iPhone 5 may hit in August. From what I’ve heard, this is unlikely. Apple has stated that iOS 5 is due this fall, August is not the fall, and there is no way Apple releases the iPhone 5 without iOS 5. September is looking more likely for each, as we have previously reported.

A report later this evening by Bloomberg also reiterates September and goes over much of what has already been rumored about the next generation iPhone for some time: better processor, better camera, resembles iPhone 4, etc.

The more interesting tidbit in this report is that Apple is testing a new iPad with a higher-resolution screen. Back in February, we noted that Apple was lining up for a fall “surprise” and had heard that a new version of the iPad was set to be that surprise. We haven’t heard any new information since then, but it’s still certainly a possibility. Of course, at the time, it wasn’t yet clear that the iPhone 5/iOS 5 would be pushed to the fall. As always, things are fluid. But if I were a betting man, I’d say a new iPad this fall is a better bet than an actual Apple television.

The Gillmor Gang — Robert Scoble, John Taschek, Kevin Marks, and Steve Gillmor — shuddered with expectant glee at Apple’s presumed iCloud announcement at next week’s WWDC event. It’s clear from all the leaks, most interestingly from Apple itself, that the record companies are finally healthy enough to move into the new streaming era. With Lady Gaga selling five times as many records as the next entry on the album charts, the numbers have strongly tipped from retail to downloads.

Amazon helped by subsidizing over a million copies at $1 a sale (8 bucks to Lady Gaga), but by next time, the market will have moved almost completely online. This gives Apple the leverage to get the TV/cable networks and the movie studios on board, with Netflix playing the Amazon role in stoking demand for streaming. Live events are last, probably following the heavyweight boxing matches of Ali and Tyson via pay-per-view but direct to Apple TV and its competitors, of which there are none. iCloud is the moment when the bits stay where they are, and the checksum becomes the value point. See you Monday for a special Gillmor Gang extra.

Apparently, the tech press is abuzz with controversy about Mike Arrington’s continuing success at actually saying what he thinks. Disclosure: I am a big fan of everything Mike does, and particularly his skill at reinventing the media. I should be considered completely biased in that regard, and you should discount everything I say accordingly.

Looking back over the past week of TechCrunch, several themes emerge. First, there’s an amazing amount of nothing going on by Apple, Google, and that company up north with the Windows thing. Apple is apparently moving toward going cloud big time. Disclosure: I love everything Apple does, and therefore am completely biased toward its products, strategies, and even idiosyncrasies like auto-replacing “its” with “it’s” even when it never means “it is” approximately 97 percent of the time.

Google is apparently getting ready to not announce anything about its social media strategy at its developer conference this week. Disclosure: I love Google and everything it does, just not as much as Apple. So when I say Android i’m really thinking iOS, and when I say AirPlay I’m really meaning AirPlay. We gave my brother Dan an Apple TV for his birthday, and are enjoying his attempts to integrate the box into his all Android all the time environment. Particularly amusing is his conjecture on the availability of the Remote app in the Android marketplace.

This past week was the first week where I literally never took my laptop out of its bag. Instead, I lived non-stop with the iPad, using the WordPress app to edit a typo in last week’s column, the Concur app to make a meaningless dent in my expenses backlog, and doing amazing work at salesforce.com throughout the rest of my waking hours. FaceTime and Skype kept me in the loop with family and friends, and yesterday I rented the episode of Grey’s Anatomy my father in law erased while taping Jeopardy.

A word about renting: I love renting shows for 99 cents and having them never touch a hard drive except for the brief caching period where Apple TV uses its “storage” to stage the show locally. I also love how Apple TV does the same thing when I use AirPlay to push a recorded show from my iPad to the big screen, saving battery time on the iPad once the show is cached. As more and more of my media consumption flows through the iPad, every little bit of battery conservation makes an increasing difference.

Somehow in the last few months of iPad living, my years of aversion to renting and preference for “owning” have inverted. I used to value the illusion that a book was mine to control, where the digital version was constrained and ephemeral. Disclosure: I’m about to make a Beatle reference. I love the Beatles and so does Apple. If I type beatles on the iPad it autocorrects to Beatles; try typing android and see what happens.

So I bought or was given the John Lennon autobiography by Philip Norman a few years ago. I read it in fits and starts, right up until someone (maybe me, maybe not) spilled coffee on it and saturated the first third of a very long book. I spent an hour separating the pages and drying them individually so as not to lose too much of the narrative. Then the iPad arrived, I downloaded the book from the Kindle app, and never touched the paper version again. Moral: you own the print version as in You Break It You Buy It. I own the coffee-stained stuck-together pages where John met Paul and decided to bring him in even though he would ultimately take over and spend weeks on Maxwell’s Silver Hammer. I read about this on the iPad.

Today the world is about catching up and staying connected. Push notification is the mechanism that controls our access to information, defines the state we left ourselves in when last we connected, and maintains the new illusion of ownership — of ideas, trends, responsibilities, and commitments. In a world where bandwidth is the new gasoline, we rely on graceful failover as something more secure than the physical reality it used to emulate. Today the cloud is more real than the services it wraps. When the cloud breaks, we realize it becomes more secure as a result.

Every tweet is a disclosure of who, what, and where we are. Every @mention, a disclosure of who we care about, and why. Every time I see somebody doubt 140 characters is enough to communicate, I laugh. Disclosure: I am the sum of my conflicts of interest. My biases make me who I am. People who live in glass houses should invest in Windex.

The Gillmor Gang — Danny Sullivan, Doc Searls, John Taschek, Kevin Marks, and Steve Gillmor — endured technical glitches and a dissection of the disruption formerly known as TV before settling into a debate about privacy. I know, sounds like the usual nonsense, but this show was high quality nonsense. I forget who brought up the famous iPhone/Android hidden recording file crisis, but things quickly got out of hand when one of us suggested that was a feature not a problem.

It turns out that not that many people are aware that when we are on the Internet, everything is recorded. For those who seem surprised by this, all those free apps are actually there to harvest our clicks, searches, and other gestures of our intent. As Doc Searls pointed out, how else does Google make money except by random clicks on Adsense adding up to billions. It’s only when we can’t figure out how to delete our wanderings that people get upset. Me — I count on being surreptitiously tracked so I can go back and figure out where I was last week.

Apple famously called the Apple TV a hobby but it seems to be turning into a profitable hobby. If true, this cements the latest generation Apple TV as more than just a side project. It’s an important piece in Apple’s ecosytem.

It’s clear that Apple is looking dictate how content is consumed on every level. The Apple TV is the key to getting content off a computing device and into the living room with Airplay as the most important part. The Apple TV could be nothing more than an Airplay device and still have a spot in Apple’s dugout. All the streaming stuff including Netflix and iTunes shopping are fun extras.

The success of the Apple TV might spur a true Apple TV, an Apple HDTV, if you will. Rumors have circulated about such a device for years, and while I still feel it would require Apple to sell the HDTV at a financial loss, such a product fits into the current ecosystem well. An Apple HDTV paired with seamless cloud storage and wireless controllers could in fact replace a desktop computer for many households. Many of the iPad apps would look fine on a 10-foot interface, but Apple would probably not have an issue finding devs to code spectacular apps for the new platform.

Pipe dream? Yeah, I still think so, but even if the analyst’s numbers are just a bit off, they still show a good number of people want Apple on their HDTVs and that alone is a win for Apple. [via AppleInsider]

I agree! There’s more than a few ways to cut the cord. So here we go, the six best devices listed in order of relevance that will help cut your household’s dependence on pay TV.

1) An ATSC Tuner

Believe it or not, there are glorous HD signals flying around your house right now. America switched to the all-digital ATSC broadcasting standard back in the summer of 2008, but most TV stations were beaming out HD signals well before than. Now all OTA stations are broadcasting at least a 480p signal with most opting for at least one high definition signal. Best of all, it’s free.

It’s as easy as hooking up an antenna to an ATSC tuner. All 25-inch and larger TVs sold after March 2006 should have the right tuner with smaller TV sold after March 2007 also rocking the goods. Just hook up an antenna and *BAM* you’re TV will be filled with crystal clear digital signals.

The trick is that older TVs can join in on the fun as long as HD isn’t necessarily important. Basic ATSC tuners run $40 – $60 and often include basic electronic programing guides and reminder functions but only output the digital signal at 480i. Proper HD OTA tuners are becoming increasingly harder to find as the tuners are now built into TVs.

Using OTA is a no-brainer even if you’re also using Netflix or any other streaming services. Why not, right? It’s free. If you have a flat screen, you likely have all you need minus a cheap antenna. Use AntennaWeb.org to fine tune your signal. Ironically going back to just an antenna and good ol’ TV signals are the best alternative to cable or satellite.

2) Boxee Box

The Boxee Box is fantastic for many reasons but chief among them is the ability to present TV content available online for free in a clean and sensible manner. The UI is beautiful. This alone makes the Boxee Box the de facto Internet-connected cord cutting device. It’s like Google TV…but not ruined by a network blockade.

Like most of the other streamers on the market, the Boxee Box sports a host of apps — over a hundred, actually. There’s Netflix, Vudu, YouTube Leanback, NHL, Pandora, MLB, Flickr, Reddit TV plus a ton more and they’re all accessible through the handy QWERTY keypad on the backside of the remote. There’s no messing with on-screen keyboards here. Just type and go.

The other main feature of the Boxee Box — and why it wins over hearts and souls daily — is the robust networking support. Boxee was previously known just for its media software and then a partnership with D-Link resulted in the Boxee Box. Boxee has always been about supporting the lowly downloader and the Boxee Box continues the tradition. Just point the device towards any number of folders or drives and the device will automatically display relevant metadata as well as sorting the files into genres. If all else fails, users can directly browse the network through SMB.

It’s these three key features — plus relatively low price, small footprint, QWERTY keypad, and dead-simple UI — that earns the Boxee Box the honor of best Internet-connected cord cutting device. It was even up for a 2010 Crunchie award but ultimately lost to the iPad.

3) Roku

If my Dad were to call me up and say, “Awesome, son. I want to cancel my Charter TV subscription and use Netflix streaming. I also like to watch baseball and hockey. What should I buy?”

First off, that would never happen because no one likes to watch hockey. But if my Dad — or anyone that just wants to watch Netflix or Amazon Video — were to ask what box is best. It’s the Roku XDS. Easy.

But why not the Boxee Box, you ask. Great question. While the Boxee Box is a great media streamer and my absolute favorite, the Roku is about as easy as it gets. Seriously. Anyone can use a Roku device. It might not have the fancy networking support or the QWERTY remote found with the Boxee but damn if it isn’t reliable. It’s like a TV appliance rather than a Internet streamer. It just always works — besides on the Hulu app, actually.

The low price also means that cord cutting isn’t an expensive experiment. Buyers are at most dropping $100 for the top-tier model that brings offers 802.11n, USB mass storage support and optical audio outputs over the less expensive models that still sport HDMI and 802.11g. It’s the same price as the new Apple TV, but the Roku streams lots more than just Netflix, MLB and NBA and the Amazon-like iTunes content. There are over 100 separate streaming channels including more sports, movies and TV sources. Plus, as I pointed out to one commenter in my last cord cutting post, it’s backed by a company that takes this scene seriously rather than just as a hobby. Roku has proven over and over again that they’re committed to building a rock solid platform with constant updates and a slow but steady hardware refresh cycle.

4) TiVo Premiere (Or HD)

The TiVo Premiere is the rich man’s cord cutting device. It’s not exactly the least expensive way to go about killing your cable bill and saving a few dollars a month. However, price aside, the TiVo Premiere — or even the older HD model — is one of the slickest ways to embrace Internet video and OTA signals.

TiVo has always positioned itself as a premiere stand-alone DVR and the last two generations have embraced Internet video. The built-in ATSC tuner and DVR functions makes for a potent combination. You could hook up an antenna for OTA HD content with Netflix, Blockbuster, Amazon, Disney, and a few others sitting on standby.

The hardware starts out at $100, but TiVo requires a monthly $19.99 subscription fee and a one-year commitment for access to the DVR and guide functions. Spend $299 up front and the monthly cost drops down to $12.95 — and that’s just for the 320GB option. The 1TB version is either $299 or $499 with the same monthly pricing.

Don’t let that price scare you away, though. If you can afford the box and the QWERTY slider peanut remote, it’s a very satisfying experience that’s family friendly as it’s not that much different than normal cable boxes. That’s a big win.

5) Dell Zino or Mac Mini

People have been hooking computers into TVs for decades. It’s nothing new. Boxee, Plex, XBMC and all the rest of the MPlayer derivatives along with software like MythTV and Windows Media Center allow for nearly endless options. The key with these setups is making them easy to use in a livingroom enviroment. That’s what’s evolved over the years.

There was a time that having a computer in the living room meant using with a mouse and a keyboard on the couch. It’s still best to keep a wireless set in a nearby closest although many wireless controllers are now designed just for the task. Lenovo makes a fantasic QWERTY keypad/trackball controller. The Apple Magic Trackpad works great, too.

Most computers are up to the task. HDMI makes it easy, too. Just plug and go, really. The upside is that you’re using a full-fledged computer and so none of the content is watered-down, restricted or unavailable. But the downside is that it’s a full-fledge computer and so all the annoyances come along with it: Do you really want your TV asking you to update Java? For some, the pros greatly outweighs the cons. Others should look at the dedicated devices like the Boxee Box.

Bonus) The library

Get a library card and rock out. Redbox didn’t kill Blockbuster. The library did.

Even my tiny library branch on the outskirts of impoverished Flint, Michigan has an impressive DVD and game selection. You can easily supplement OTA TV with DVDs from your local library. They generally have an impressive selection of the latest movies and TV shows all there for the taking. Don’t laugh. I’m serious. The place you used to go for Book-It can now supply your Fringe addiction.

Side note: The $99 Apple TV didn’t make this list because there are better devices for the job. Sure, it can do the task, but the Roku XDS or even WD TV Live are a better bets for the same price. They offer more functionality and web apps. It’s that simple. The only saving grace of the current Apple TV is Airplay, which is a great for households saturated with iOS devices. For everyone else, access to more streaming apps is a better value.

Buried today in the iOS 4.3 release is an unmentioned, but very interesting update for the Apple TV: access to both MLB.tv and NBA League Pass. Yes, the live sports are coming to the Apple TV!

That’s great news for Apple TV owners, but such functionality has actually been available for some time on the rival boxes by Roku. Still, the ramifications of this are potentially huge because the lack of sports content has been the one point used over and over again in arguments against these new wave of Internet-powered set-top boxes killing cable. Between this, Roku, and Xbox Live getting ESPN content, we’re definitely getting closer to a full-on cable revolt.

The one element still missing from these boxes is the crown jewel: NFL content. The moment NFL Sunday Ticket launches on one of these boxes — and eventually, it will — you’ll hear screams of pure terror emanating from the headquarters of each of the cable companies. I can’t wait.

But with regard to today’s Apple TV update specifically, there’s something else interesting going on. While Apple still isn’t quick to talk about it, Apple TV does run a variation of iOS. And that has led everyone to wonder when there will be apps on the Apple TV?

The truth is that there already are apps! That’s exactly what MLB.tv and NBA League Pass are. And it’s what Netflix on the device was before that. And YouTube before that. They may not look like iPhone or iPad apps, but they’re apps. The main difference is that they’re made by Apple (with the help of the companies involved).

What peopler really want, of course, is the ability to run third-party apps on the device. And today’s new apps have some worrying that Apple plans to keep the Apple TV platform completely closed — as in, only they can make apps, even with third-party content.

My hunch is that this isn’t the case. I have no knowledge about this either way, but just think about it: the Apple TV running third-party apps has the potential to be absolutely huge. The next big thing after the iPhone and iPad. Why would Apple not embrace that?

Also, Google is gearing up to launch their apps marketplace for Google TV. So far, that device hasn’t been a threat to devices like the Apple TV. But then again, Apple TV hasn’t yet been a true threat to cable. There’s a much bigger picture for all of this. And while sports is one key, apps are the real game-changer. Again, why would Apple not embrace that?

They will. For more proof, see what they’ve doing with the iPad. Alongside the iPad 2, Apple announced two important things: the opening of AirPlay to third-party apps and an HDMI accessory to hook up the iPad to your HDTV. With the former, apps can now stream any and all video content to your Apple TV to play on your television. With the latter, you can run any app on your TV.

Naturally, these apps run through the iPad won’t be optimized for the television, but the fact that not only is Apple allowing you to do it, but providing tools and accessories for it, shows they’re not against apps and apps’ content on the TV. The full-on push is likely just a matter of building out a robust SDK for the Apple TV, similar to what they did for the iPhone and iPad.

There are other challenges in this space since it’s not just a matter of scaling up existing apps 2x, because televisions come in all shapes and sizes. But they’ll figure it out.

And when they do, cable is in big, big trouble.

[via OSXDaily]

Apple seems to be taking over everything these days — they’ve done a remarkable job so far — however, there is one major lacking from their lineup: console games. There is a great opportunity for media delivery by way of the TV, and Apple certainly knows this. PS3, Xbox, streaming boxes and even Google TV have been making moves in this area for awhile; if Apple wants to make long-term success of the iTunes Stores, they need people buying into Apple TV. The gaming consoles have had a 1-up on the Apple TV for a while, just by offering games. Now, it appears that there are traces of gaming on Apple TV in the latest release of the iOS 4.3 beta. Could Apple be coming out with a gaming system and controller?

There are several references pointing to “ATVGames” and “ATVThunder” in the latest release that point to leaderboards like Game Center, ways to interact over multiplayer, a store front and a controller of some kind. The new controller could be just an iPhone or an entirely new piece of hardware. The Apple TV has a small amount of storage capacity, so if a game system were to become of it, it may end up streaming the games like OnLive. It’s possible that the Apple TV could process the streaming data locally with OpenGL.

If Apple were to add gaming to the Apple TV, would it be done well like the rest of Apple’s portfolio, or is still just a hobby?

[via engadget]

As my daughter used to say in pre-school, let me undersplain something to one such victim, Microsoft. When you send out your troops to tell enterprises why the iPad sucks, be very careful to not include facts about Windows machines as proof of anything. As a longtime resident of OS/X, I have no use for Windows machines generally. But specifically, nothing about Microsoft-based products comes close to the worst aspects of the iPad circa Version 1.

You know the list: Flash, no Office, etc. These are features of the iPad, not problems. Investing in Flash is like putting money into a parking meter with a one-hour limit. After you reach the limit, the money goes in and doesn’t count for anything. Plus you can’t get it out. Office creates documents that require email to scatter unevenly across disorganized cc and forward silos where the resulting cloud of authority mangles both management and employee incentives. Etc. is everything else you might want to do on the iPad that Windows machines can do but don’t want to because it destabilizes legacy Microsoft revenue streams.

This last point is why comparing a shipping viral product to a non-existent OS-orphaned one is so absurd. But Microsoft is not stupid; they must think they can stall long enough to change the subject again. Which leads to the next surprising iOS data — Netflix streaming via Apple TV passing iPad streams. Actually, it’s intuitive if you use both products as I do. Netflix is a cute trick on the iPhone, a traveling companion on the iPad, made for Apple TV and the home screen. With Fox and ABC talking about dropping Hulu in favor of Netflix, Apple TV, and Xbox, the market may be compressing rapidly into a two-party system.

Netflix is interesting because it is the first service to follow the disruptive arc of the iPad. Every time the iPad is analyzed, the projections are anywhere from just plain wrong to what amounts to a niche. Doesn’t run applications… now there’s an AppStore. Doesn’t run Flash… now there’s a Flash converter app. Apps don’t support a magazine subscription model… Tuesday they will. Won’t be accepted by IT… 80% penetration. Will be overwhelmed by Android tablets… Apple will Verizon them with iPad 2.

Netflix: Doesn’t run this year’s shows… just announced limit of 2 simultaneous streams per subscription. Two problems that actually combine to further growth of the disruptive network. With 20 million subscribers already accounting for a big chance of YouTube style bandwidth, the studios are threatening to starve the service to protect cable and satellite and DVD pricing and windows. The solution: bump up to higher sub price to free up streams for family of four, producing high value customers that finance newer content. Also moving the service rapidly from DVD/Blue Ray to all streaming. What’s left? Live news and events, which Hulu Plus is talking of acquiring before Netflix gets too big.

What is reminiscent of iPadnomics is the speed with which the disruption is underestimated, the naiveté with which the backlash is orchestrated, and the resultant vaulting of the service into a near-incumbent position before the deposed incumbents can retrench from the initial mistaken counterattack. Netflix is already at the stage where iTunes was when the music cartel tried to cap it. While Amazon may be a cheaper service without so-called DRM, there’s no device comparable to Apple TV at the end of the value chain.

Instead there are the almostees like Google TV and Spotify, trying to patch together enough coverage to simulate the Netflix/Apple TV combination on the video side and iTunes/iOS on the music side. It’s not so much about Comcast replacement as they want you to think, because live programming has not been built out in this new Net model. A la carte programming is not yet worth piecing together from a cost perspective; it’s easier to keep the cable package and pay the on demand freight as Hollywood continues to roll out mediocre product.

Many of us are spending for a home theater experience plus cable/satellite and testing the broadband cap with streaming over Apple TV and Netflix. Right now for a family of four we’re spending $100 for first run and shifting the mid-tier to 8 bucks a pop plus the Netflix bill for the balance. The first news network to realize they are really competing (and losing – see Egypt) with Twitter and Facebook may talk with Hulu but will think twice before pissing off Apple or Netflix. Then we wait for HBO, or watch AMC or some such to replace them. Already Netflix at 20 million beats Showtime and Starz at between 17 and 18, with HBO not far enough ahead at 27.

Similarly, streaming has disrupted the technology business. Where Comcast and HBO have the most to lose to the Cloud in media, Microsoft and Office do in the enterprise. A generation of netizens is tweeting, retweeting, and @mentioning the stream, before emptying an InBox coming under attack behind the firewall. Microsoft can let some air out of the tire by announcing an OfficeTalk skunkworks project, but taking over the desktop from Outlook without a mobile strategy will be fighting the last war. Redmond is in between a rock and a hard place.

The next version iOS 4.3 supports advanced gestures for navigating between apps. As iPad developers support push notification in their next revs, the difference between micromessaging and the Inbox is secondary to the position in the alert queue. Microsoft could push these realtime messages to the front, but in doing so Outlook is further marginalized by competition with direct messages and @mentions. The Microsoft of the last few years could take part in a conversation about open data, but with Ozzie and Muglia gone and former-Office-now-Windows-chief Sinofsky cementing power, it’s a stretch to assume Microsoft won’t go classic in its bet on Office as the gatekeeper.

The wildcard here is Mac AppStore, where Apple has the opportunity to unify the social Office as a layer of cooperating apps. Write to the iPad, and run also on the Mac. If Microsoft decides to extend its OneNote iPhone app across Office, they will either up-port it to iPad (and implicitly replace native Mac with native Mac Apps) and damage WindowsPad, or push it to Android with even more disastrous consequences. With Apple TV on iOS, it’s write once run anyappware.

Watching Secretariat this weekend reminded me of the iPad/Netflix story arc. After close victories in shorter races at the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, the Belmont Stakes shaped up as an endurance test thought to bring the speedy come-from-behind horse back to earth. Instead Secretariat broke from the gate and won going away, leaving the field far behind by 31 lengths. Perhaps we’re not at the same point in Apple’s race, or at the very moment when the studios pull the reins back on Netflix’ run. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

Here’s more evidence that regular people have zero time for things like Google TV, Boxee, and Roku, if only because they’re too complicated for their own good. Hill Holiday, a “caffeine-fueled ad agency,” asked five Boston-area families to participate in a cord-cutting experiment. For one week each family was asked to forgo traditional cable TV in favor of one of the following devices: Apple TV, Google TV, Boxee Box, Xbox 360, and Roku. These devices, of course, are the premier devices for people looking to break free of their cable company while still being able to enjoy television. And how did it turn out for these five families?

They were not impressed, and for all the reasons we’ve enumerated in the past. And by “we” I mean Matt; cord-cutting is his bête noire.

If you’re someone who merely watches TV to unwind before going to bed, the absolute best device you can buy right now is a traditional cable TV box. Call the cable company, have them set it up, and you’ve got access to literally more programming than you could ever consume. Live sports, news, game shows, comedies, drama, reality TV as far as the eye can see—the works. There’s no buffering and there’s no hoping that your Wi-Fi network won’t crash. Peace of mind is a wonderful thing.

The families also complained that using these devices transformed TV-watching into an active experience. No! They used to call TV the idiot box for a reason: you sit back and let it all come to you. “Oh, look, Seinfeld is on, let’s watch that.” Or, “Wow, Ferris Bueller’s Day Off is on, let’s watch that for the hundredth time.”

There’s a difference between A) channel surfing, having something catch your eye, then you committing an hour to watching it, and B) sifting through page after page of listings, nestled 400 menu screens deep, only to find that the movie you finally decided upon—an exhausting endeavor—isn’t even available in HD. Gee, thanks.

The question becomes, exactly how is that better than watching regular TV? Isn’t technology supposed to make our lives easier, and not more frazzled?

Of course, none of this is to say that cord-cutting doesn’t work for some people, because clearly it does, but it does show that not everyone is as keen on the concept as some of its proponents online would have you believe.