You may remember Estimize from our coverage back in April. The service basically pits an average of user estimates against Wall Street analysts when looking at the trajectory of any given company’s stock. Users are encouraged to make their best guess for upcoming EPS and Revenue estimates up to eight quarters out. The service is sure to be a forthcoming disruptive force, with the Estimize community predicting more accurately than Wall Street experts between 67 percent and 77 percent of the time.
Estimize generates even more accurate results compared to the pros when it’s given more data. If there are four or more estimates given for a certain company’s quarter, the Estimize community beats out Wall Street 67 percent of the time. That number hits 77 percent when more than 20 estimates have been accrued. This means that the more data Estimize is given, the more likely it is that the Estimize community will generate more accurate estimates than Wall Street.
Luckily for the company, last quarter Estimize saw 300 percent growth quarter-over-quarter, so the data should continue to roll on in. Even better, the service uses an algorithm that filters out extreme outlier estimates, making the average Estimize estimates that much more accurate. Oh, and let’s not forget that the number of Estimize users is far greater than the pool of analysts contributing estimates to Thomson Reuters First Call, Wall Street’s data set.
Estimize now boasts more than 6,500 users, whereas only about 800 analysts contribute to Wall Street. Far and away, Estimize users are worst at guessing financial stocks, so perhaps more targeted acquisition of specifically financial-minded users is on the menu for the service. On the other hand, Estimize users tend to kick ass guessing retail stocks, consumer stocks, and technology.
Speaking of tech company estimates, today’s a big day for Apple with WWDC looming. If you feel like checking out the service or posting your guess, head on over to Estimize and get started with an anonymous user account. You may even walk away with some cash or a badge thanks to Estimize’s newly implemented Challenges.
Estimize is a buy side and independent analyst estimates platform. The firm was founded in 2011 by former quantitative hedge fund analyst Leigh Drogen, with the belief that sell-side analysts are not correctly incented to provide accurate and unbiased earnings analysis due to inherent conflicts within the investment banking construct. By crowdsourcing estimates from a diverse community of individuals, Estimize provides both a more accurate and more representative view of true expectations. 2682 analysts contribute to Estimize on over 900...
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