A couple of years ago, if someone had told me that the Windows Phone platform would become more popular than iOS, I would have laughed in their face. Now, however, IDC is claiming that it just may become a reality by 2015, as WP7 is expected to snatch the number two platform spot from iOS, currently ranked just behind Android. The BlackBerry OS is expected to lose even more ground, while Symbian basically disappears from our phones and possibly, our memories, in the next four years.
The report claims that “as the smartphone market grows and diversifies,” iOS will drop from an 18.2 percent market share to 16.9 percent, while Android will jump from a market share of 38.9 percent in 2011 to 43.8 percent in 2015. Most impressively, WP7 will skyrocket from its current measly market share of 3.8 percent to a whopping 20.3 percent share in four years. That’s a shocking cumulative annual growth rate of 82.3 percent.
IDC believes the reason for this spike will be the release of Windows Phone 7, codenamed Mango. And from what I’ve seen of Mango, the firm’s predictions make total sense. Mango is a gem, and with Nokia shipping Mango-powered devices starting next year, it wouldn’t surprise me if Apple and Google have started biting their nails a bit.
IDC also expects the worldwide smartphone market to jump to 55 percent in 2011, as users toss out their feature phones to join the smartphone movement. This doesn’t seem too far off, either, as the smartphone market jumped from 20 percent to 31 percent between last year and now.