Holy iCrap! 1 in 10 smartphones in the UK will be iPhone by 2012

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I know we Brits love our iPhones but this could start to get a tad silly. According to the latest data published by mobile research agency mobileSquared, it’s predicted that one in ten smartphones that are active in the UK will be an iPhone by the end of 2012.

Further still, as 2015 wraps up – bare with me here – the market will top 9.4 million iPhones or 11% of the total devices used in the UK.

Now if that’s just a little too much future gazing, the number of iPhones in the UK is forecast to rise 195% from 2.17 million at the end of 2009 to 6.4 million by the end of this year. That’s 7.9% of the market in the UK touting Apple’s smartphone – death grip and all.

Interestingly, the report does, however, peg this year as a spike, suggesting that in the years to come iPhone growth will slow as Android phones continue to flood the market.

In terms of iPhones being sold, O2 is said to still have the edge despite losing its exclusivity period and “is well on course to top the 4 million mark by the end of the year”, having sold an average of 166,667 iPhones per-month over the past 6 months. Of course, the climate is slightly different now with the iPhone 4 on sale and all of the major operators offering the device.

I’ve also received eye witness reports that Apple’s flagship London store is still seeing 2.5 hour queues for the company’s latest smartphone many days after launch.

But, ultimately, these kind of predictions often turn out to be a bit, well, meaningless. They either state the obvious or involve far too much conjecture. Also the mobile landscape moves at lightning speed lately so it’s arguably a fool’s game to get out the crystal ball. For example, I don’t know of anybody that predicted that BlackBerry would be a hit with teens in the UK but that was before RIM started offering lower-cost devices on a pre-pay deal and with BlackBerry Messenger (BBM) data included.

That’s why I try to keep the predictions that I make at least ten years ahead so that by the time I’m wrong, they’ll hopefully be forgotten.

Update: The headline has been changed to reflect that by mobile phones we mean smartphones, however loose of a definition that is too.

  • R

    Sweden is already there. It has been topping the phone charts all year. All phones, not just smartphones.

    Latest chart had it drop to second place but I’m not surprised if it’s back to number one for July, despite iPhone4 only released the 30th (happened last year).

  • http://www.reverselookphone.com Reverse Look Phone

    With the figures released by apple, I’m not surprised if Iphone users would reach that number by 2012.

  • http://emmersonic.com/archives/whats-coming-next-from-apple/ What’s coming next from Apple

    […] That sounds unlikely, but when you consider the importance of the product to Apple’s plans — a report from research agency, mobileSquared today claims that 10% of mobile phones active in the UK will be an iPhone by the end of 2010. […]

  • http://raxraxrax.com/2010/08/05/the-raxlist-for-august-5th-2/ The RaxList for August 5th | raxraxrax.com

    […] Holy iCrap! 1 in 10 mobile phones in the UK will be iPhone by 2012 – I know we Brits love our iPhones but this could start to get a tad silly. According to the latest data published by mobile research agency mobileSquared, it’s predicted that one in ten mobile phones that are active in the UK will be an iPhone by the end of 2010. […]

  • JD

    I’m not sure I trust any research agency that can’t spell featurephone.

  • http://www.branedy.net/ Branedy

    And hence, 90% of mobile phones are NOT iPhones! Is this a sign iPhone numbers have Peaked?

    iPhone Peaks at 10% marketshare!

    That headline would get a lot of hits too!

  • http://www.blogle.org/2010/08/holy-icrap-1-in-10-mobile-phones-in-the-uk-will-be-iphone-by-2012/ Holy iCrap! 1 in 10 mobile phones in the UK will be iPhone by 2012 | Blogle.org

    […] on eu.techcrunch.com This entry was posted in English, Technology and tagged Apple, blackberry, Brits, eye witness […]

  • Andriod Fan Boi

    Terrible research and story writing!

    @ your point about 2015 and 9.4mio iPhones… please rework your figures with something other than an excel spreadsheet. What about all those obsolete iPhone 1/2/3/4/5/6… SITTING IN DRAWERS like the 2 I already have, sold does not = attached to a network.

    Then there’s this factor called COMPETITION!

    Mark my words at least two UK operators will launch sub £100 payg Android for phones by Xmas and with a small dip in the cost of touch screens just you wait, end of 2011 Android touch screen phones will cost UK customers less than £100 on PAYG, an Xmas pricing sweet spot. FYI 30% of all phones sold every year are stocking fillers.

    Oh and since the UK is 35% contract and 65% PAYG your average UK PAYG customer needs to stump up >£400 to buy an unlocked 3GS and pay for a data plan out of thier calling credit.

    So unless Apple release a £120 PAYG phone sharpish and UK operators GIVE AWAY data for minimum calling credit spend on PAYG… your story is Ill researched, headline touting, crap.

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    […] the blast of mobile marketing, coupons and apps coming from retailers has its desired effect. Also 1 in 10 smartphones in the UK will be iPhone by 2012, according to predictions based on new research. Wonder what percentage will […]

  • http://www.nightbreakers.co.uk Kerry Mulder

    After falling in love with my i-phone I believe the hype however I think the title and article of this post are somewhat misleading

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    […] the blast of mobile marketing, coupons and apps coming from retailers has its desired effect. Also 1 in 10 smartphones in the UK will be iPhone by 2012, according to predictions based on new research. Wonder what percentage will […]

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    […] man sich vor allem in UK mal die Verbreitung anschaut, dann sieht man dieses Massenphänomen sehr deutlich. Die Briten lieben ihre iPhones wirklich und wenn man mal durch London läuft, sieht […]

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