David Sobotta knows Apple. He worked there for 20 years and has been in countless meetings with the Steve. Therefore, let’s give him a listen. What he’s basically saying is that a Mac Tablet is almost out of the question while the Apple Phone is almost 99% certain.

Now, as we all know, even the best prognosticators are often horribly wrong. However, let’s talk to the wisdom of the crowds. Inkling is offering a 75% chance in the prediction markets. CrowdIQ, a similar system, is saying 1%, which is what I’m going with as well. However, Sobotta gives me pause. With millions of eyes on Apple, they have to pull something fancy out of their hat.

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What Jobs told me on the iPhone [Guardian]